Why are there no BUY signals in StockScout right now?

Three macro filters are simultaneously active: WTI oil above $97 (Iran strike impact), elevated geopolitical stress (1,181+ GDELT events), and rising unemployment combined with rising 10-year Treasury yields. When all three are active, the system downgrades BUYs to HOLDs and prevents new entries.

What is the GDELT geopolitical stress filter?

GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) tracks global conflict and political events in real time. StockScout v2 uses GDELT event count as a macro filter — when events exceed a threshold, the system applies a safety penalty to all BUY signals, converting marginal entries to HOLDs.

What conditions would restore BUY signals in StockScout?

The three filters would need to relax: oil falling back below ~$93, GDELT events declining from 1,181 (de-escalation signal), and yield curve stabilization. If the March 18 Fed meeting produces dovish language, that alone could shift the 10Y enough to relax the third filter.

Is a HOLD-only portfolio a good sign or a bad sign?

HOLD-only positioning is a defensive posture, not a bearish one. The system isn't signaling a sell-everything moment — it's saying new entries don't have favorable risk/reward right now. Existing positions (NEE, SO, AAPL, META, ABBV) were entered at lower risk and are being held through the uncertainty.

Which stocks are closest to a BUY signal despite the filters?

PLTR has the highest VST (1.27) and receives a +0.15 defense boost from the Iran conflict headlines, making it the closest candidate. NEE and SO (utilities, VST 1.22–1.23) would be top entries in any de-escalation scenario. AAPL (VST 1.13) and META (1.12) are solid but need the tech filter to ease.

What is a VST score and what makes PLTR the top candidate right now?

VST is StockScout's composite score for Value, Safety, and Timing. PLTR scores 1.27 — the highest in the current watchlist — and gets an additional +0.15 boost because 7 of today's conflict headlines involve defense/intelligence technology, directly benefiting Palantir's core business.

No BUY Signals: What the StockScout Filters Are Telling You Right Now

StockScout Strategy Analysis — 2026-03-14

When a system designed to find BUY signals finds none, that’s the signal.

As of Friday’s close, StockScout v2 has zero BUY recommendations across its entire watchlist. Every name is HOLD. The book is defensive. No new entries are warranted.

Here’s exactly why — and what it would take to change.

The Three Active Filters

StockScout v2 uses a layered macro filter system that modifies base VST scores based on real-time conditions. Three are simultaneously active right now:

Filter 1: Oil Spike (WTI > ~$93)

Status: 🔴 Active | WTI at $99.31 (+3.74%)

When oil spikes beyond a threshold, the system applies negative adjustments to:

Consumer discretionary names (margin pressure from input costs)
Airlines and transportation (direct fuel cost)
Non-energy/non-defense names that don’t benefit from the move

The Iran strike makes this filter structural, not transient. Oil is not going back to $95 tomorrow — the supply disruption premium persists until there’s either de-escalation or confirmed production restoration.

Filter 2: Geopolitical Stress (GDELT Events > Threshold)

Status: 🔴 Active | 1,181 global incidents tracked

The GDELT feed logged 1,181 global incidents on the March 14 pull. The system’s safety filter applies a universal penalty across all BUY signals when this count is elevated. The logic: during high-uncertainty periods, mean reversion and correlation spikes increase — diversification benefits collapse, and positions that look uncorrelated become correlated.

Defense names get a positive adjustment from the GDELT filter (conflict = demand for defense), but not enough to push them to BUY given the other two active filters.

Filter 3: Macro Divergence (Rising Unemployment + Rising 10Y Yield)

Status: 🔴 Active

The dangerous combination is unemployment rising while long bond yields rise. Normally, a slowing economy pulls yields down as rate-cut expectations build. When both rise together, it signals stagflation risk — the worst macro environment for equities, where the Fed can’t cut (inflation too high) and can’t raise (growth too fragile).

The 10-Year at 4.285% (+0.28% today) combined with labor market softening puts the system in conservative posture for all growth-dependent names.

The Closest Candidates

Despite all filters active, some names are closer to a signal than others:

Symbol	VST	Signal	Why It’s Closest
PLTR	1.27	HOLD	Highest VST + defense boost (+0.15) from 7 conflict headlines
NEE	1.23	HOLD	Best RT timing (1.45), low beta (0.76), utility safe haven
SO	1.22	HOLD	Low beta (0.40), defensive rotation confirmed
AAPL	1.13	HOLD	Safety RS 1.05, lower beta vs. tech peers
META	1.12	HOLD	Value + safety combo, P/E 27.4 reasonable

PLTR is the most interesting case. Palantir’s core business — intelligence software, battlefield AI, government data contracts — benefits directly from the conflict scenario the filters are reacting to. The system gives it a +0.15 defense boost from the 7 conflict-related headlines in today’s pull. Its VST of 1.27 is the highest on the list despite the depressed environment.

If one filter relaxes (say, GDELT drops below threshold on a quiet weekend), PLTR is most likely to flip to BUY first.

NEE and SO are the utilities play. Their low betas (0.76 and 0.40 respectively) make them nearly immune to the geo stress filter — low-beta names get a smaller safety penalty. They’re in the book as HOLD because they were entered before the filters activated; a de novo entry today would also be valid.

What Restores BUYs

Three scenarios that could relax the filters:

Scenario A: Oil De-escalation (most impactful) WTI falling back below $93–95 would deactivate Filter 1 for most names. This requires either: confirmed ceasefire, confirmed Hormuz transit safety, or unexpected OPEC supply response. Probability this weekend: low. Probability over 2 weeks: moderate.

Scenario B: GDELT Normalization Global incident count dropping below the system’s threshold — essentially, the news cycle calming. This can happen faster than oil de-escalation; a quiet weekend with no new escalation could shift GDELT numbers. Probability: moderate.

Scenario C: Fed Dovish Surprise (March 18) If the Fed’s statement contains language signaling earlier cuts than priced, the 10Y would rally (yields fall), relaxing Filter 3. Given >99% probability of a hold and the current inflation picture, a dovish surprise is unlikely — but any hint of acknowledging growth risks could shift sentiment.

The Contrarian Case

A HOLD-only system in a falling market is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do: preserving capital while waiting for a better entry. The instinct to “do something” when markets sell off is one of the most expensive instincts in investing.

The five existing HOLD positions were entered at lower prices and are being held through the uncertainty — not because the system is frozen, but because the risk/reward on new entries doesn’t clear the bar.

When the filters relax, the BUY signals will be there. The system is watching.

Analysis based on StockScout v2 multi-factor scoring. Not financial advice. Track live signals → StockScout v2 StockScout v1 (original ranker)