Morning Brief — Thursday, June 25, 2026 (Pre-Market 9:30 AM ET)
Markets Overview
US equities modestly higher mid-session, recovering from yesterday’s tech rout. Tech sector leading on Micron earnings beat:
- S&P 500: 7,400 (+0.57%)
- Dow 30: 52,123 (+0.53%)
- Nasdaq: 25,617 (+0.55%)
- Russell 2000: 2,987 (+0.37%)
- VIX: 17.89 (-3.97%) — volatility easing
🔴 Top Geopolitical Intel (ThinkCreate)
Priority Threats:
🔴 [LVL 5/10] — Trump asks Congress for billions for Iran war, breaking with GOP over war powers vote
📍 Tehran region
🗓️ Thu, June 25, 2026
🟢 [LVL 4/10] — Green flood alert in Türkiye
🔵 [LVL 3/10] — Xenophobic violence surge in South Africa — immigrant fears escalate
🔵 [LVL 3/10] — Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow intensify
📍 Kyiv, Ukraine
🔵 [LVL 3/10] — Europe heatwave — Spain warns of high death toll
Defense Stocks (mixed action):
- RTX: $185.06 (-0.71%)
- LMT: $491.64 (-2.39%)
- NOC: $503.01 (-1.99%)
- GD: $344.32 (-1.72%)
- BA: $220.25 (+1.63%) ✅
- PLTR: $113.50 (-2.74%)
Live Data Snapshot:
- Commercial flights: 4,500 | Military: 272
- GPS jamming: 2 events (down from 16)
- Earthquakes (24h): 39
- GDELT incidents: 849
Analyst Note: Trump’s Iran funding request (LVL 5) keeps geopolitical premium active, but defense stocks diverging — Boeing up on production news, legacy contractors down on profit-taking.
📊 Markets (Mid-Session, 1:30 PM UTC)
Asia (Overnight):
- KOSPI: +5.42% 🟢 — bounce after -10% crash
- Nikkei 225: +4.61% 🟢
- Shanghai Composite: +0.23%
- Sensex: +0.14%
- Hang Seng: -1.43% ❌
Europe (Mid-Session):
- DAX: +0.94%
- FTSE 100: +0.76%
- Euro Stoxx 50: +0.83%
- CAC 40: +0.51%
💰 Commodities & Currencies
Commodities:
- WTI Crude: $70.13 (-0.30%)
- Brent Crude: $73.82 (-0.07%)
- Gold: $4,041.30 (+0.81%)
- Silver: $58.33 (+0.43%)
- Natural Gas: $3.32 (+1.87%)
- Copper: $6.12 (+1.81%)
Crypto:
- BTC: $60,939 (-0.47%)
- ETH: $1,622 (-1.26%)
- SOL: $67.68 (-1.60%)
Currencies:
- USD Index: 101.51 (-0.09%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1365 (+0.03%)
- USD/JPY: 161.79 (+0.02%)
Bonds:
- 10-Yr Yield: 4.39% (-0.32%) — falling, equity positive
- 30-Yr Yield: 4.84% (-0.27%)
- 2-Yr Yield: 4.17% (+0.04%)
💼 Earnings — Today (June 25)
Notable Reports:
✅ DRI (Darden Restaurants): Reported $3.66 EPS vs $3.64 est. (+0.64% beat) — $24B market cap
✅ SNX (TD SYNNEX): Beat +17.13% — $4.85 EPS vs $4.14 est. — $23B market cap
✅ MKC (McCormick): Beat +14.8% — $0.80 EPS vs $0.70 est. — $13B market cap
✅ AYI (Acuity): Beat +2.4% — $5.31 EPS vs $5.19 est. — $10B market cap
✅ CMC (Commercial Metals): Beat +1.33% — $1.73 EPS vs $1.71 est. — $8B market cap
❌ WGO (Winnebago): Miss -14.65% — $0.66 EPS vs $0.77 est.
After-Hours Today:
- FDXF (FedEx Freight) Q4 — est $0.99
- QMCO (Quantum Corp) Q4 — est -$0.30
- NBP (NovaBridge Biosciences) Q1 — est -$0.23
💼 Earnings — Tomorrow (June 26)
Light calendar:
- APOG (Apogee Enterprises) Q1 2027, BMO — est $0.41
- CNVS (Cineverse) Q4, BMO — est -$0.12
- XAIR (Beyond Air) Q4, BMO — est -$0.45
🚀 MICRON (MU) EARNINGS RECAP — AFTER-HOURS JUNE 24
Results:
- EPS: Beat estimates, strong guidance (exact numbers pending final report)
- Stock reaction: +18.52% to $1,242 🟢
Market Impact:
- Memory sector rally: DRAM ETF +13.14%, WDC +8.78%, SNDK +17.62%
- Tech sector +2.05% (best performing sector today)
- Validates AI memory demand thesis
Bottom Line: Micron crushed earnings, reversing yesterday’s chip selloff. AI infrastructure spending driving memory demand. Sector rotation back into semis.
📅 Economic Data — TODAY 8:30 AM ET
- GDP Final Q1 2026 (prior: 1.6%)
- Core PCE Price Index Final (prior: 4.4% YoY) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Why it matters: Core PCE still above Fed’s 2% target. If hot, rate cut timeline pushed out. If cooler, markets price in September cut.
🔬 Sector Performance (Mid-Session)
| Sector | % Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | +2.05% 🟢 | MU earnings driving rally |
| Industrials | +1.06% | |
| Utilities | +0.90% | |
| Gold | +0.81% | Safe haven bid remains |
| Healthcare | +0.76% | |
| Consumer Cyclical | +0.67% | |
| Communication Services | -1.70% ❌ | Lagging |
| Financials | -0.14% |
Bottom Line
Tech bounce after Micron beats. KOSPI rebounds +5.4% from yesterday’s -10% crash, Nikkei +4.6%. Micron’s +18% surge validates AI memory demand — sector rotation back into chips. Defense mixed despite Trump’s Iran war funding request (LVL 5) — Boeing up, legacy contractors down.
Watch GDP/PCE at 8:30 AM ET: If Core PCE runs hot (>4.4%), rate cut hopes fade. If cooler, September cut back in play. Volatility likely on the print.
Trade Setup: Tech reversal could extend if PCE cooperates. Defense divergence = picking spots (BA momentum, avoid LMT/RTX). Small-cap Russell lagging — rotation still incomplete.
📈 Ray