Ray's Tradebook
Multi-signal engine · AI-Trader Agent ID: 1402 · Paper trading only
Portfolio Cash
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Open Positions
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Unrealized P&L
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Shadow P&L
+$2,048.63
Open Positions
Loading positions from AI-Trader...
Signal Scorecard — Watchlist
Combined score from 10 independent signals. CS ≥ 0.62 = BUY · CS 0.56–0.62 = BUY (½) · CS 0.48–0.56 = HOLD · CS < 0.48 = SELL. Updated each morning.
| Symbol | VST | Sector Mom | Earnings Prox | VIX Trend | Oil Filter | Geo Stress | 🔮 Kronos | Combined Score | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||||||
Weights: VST 28% · Sector 14% · Earnings Prox 12% · VIX 11% · Kronos 10% · Oil 9% · Geo 8% · Defense 5% · MeanRev 3%
Shadow Portfolio Engine start: Apr 9, 2026
Hypothetical trades logged every session regardless of suppressors or API status. Validates signal engine before real capital is committed.
| Date | Symbol | Action | Entry | Qty | Exit | Exit Date | Hyp. P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | GOOGL | BUY | $315.00 | 31 | $318.49 | Apr 10 EOD | +$108 | PCE 3.0% cleared gate. Oil/geo blocked real entry. Signal engine was right. |
| 2026-04-10 | GOOGL | HOLD | — | — | — | — | — | Combined score 0.55, below 0.65 threshold. No hypothetical entry. |
| 2026-04-13 | ALL | NO ENTRY | — | — | — | — | — | All CS < 0.50. Hormuz shock. No hypothetical entry — would require CS ≥ 0.65. |
| 2026-04-14 | ALL | NO ENTRY | — | — | — | — | — | Best score GOOGL 0.541 (HOLD). No stock at BUY. Oil still $96 (need <$85). Holding for post-bank-earnings signal recalculation. |
Shadow P&L: +$2,048.63 · Trades tracked: 1 · Last updated: 2026-07-08
Decision Log
Every session recorded — trades executed, cash held, and reason. Source of truth. AI-Trader is secondary.
| Date | Symbol | Decision | Combined Score | Reason | AI-Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | ALL | 💰 HELD CASH | 0.47-0.61 | **MARKET OPEN — NO BUY SIGNALS (ALL < 0.65 THRESHOLD).** Market conditions: elevated geopolitical stress (884 GDELT events), low VIX (15.81, +1.54% — supportive), WTI $69.24 (stable, oil filter inactive), rising 10Y yield (4.49%). **Combined scores:** PLTR 0.61 (highest, defense boost +0.15), DAL 0.57, VLO 0.58, LLY 0.58, AMZN 0.55, WMB 0.54, APA 0.51, UNH 0.52, LMT 0.52, GOOGL 0.50 (SELL threshold), CVX 0.48 (SELL), AMD 0.47 (SELL). **Kronos forecasts:** PLTR +1.000 (strong bullish), DAL +0.660, VLO +0.295, AMZN +0.220, LLY +0.163, WMB -0.002 (neutral), UNH -0.120, GOOGL -0.244, APA -0.502, LMT -0.601, CVX -0.888, AMD -1.000 (extreme bearish). **Quant scores:** AMD 0.442, VLO 0.430, CVX 0.429, DAL 0.427, UNH 0.425, APA 0.424, LLY 0.419, WMB 0.414, GOOGL 0.410, AMZN 0.399, LMT 0.398, PLTR 0.364. **StockScout Next Session (5 HOLD picks):** LLY HOLD VST 1.57, VLO HOLD VST 1.53, APA HOLD VST 1.26, WMB HOLD VST 1.22, AMZN HOLD VST 1.18. **Decision:** NONE meet 0.65 BUY threshold. Geo stress (884 events) suppresses quality setups despite supportive VIX + oil. **HOLDING 100% CASH ($102,048.63).** Awaiting GDELT < 800 + sector rotation data (runs 8:30 AM ET). No positions executed. | Positions API: 0 open |
| 2026-07-06 | ALL | 🔵 EOD UPDATE | — | **EOD verification (9:30 PM UTC).** Portfolio 100% cash ($102,048.63). No open positions. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$2,048.63. Markets closed. All signals remain < 0.65 BUY threshold. | Positions API checked, 0 open |
| 2026-07-06 | ALL | 💰 HELD CASH | 0.549-0.612 | **ALL 8 CORE STOCKS BELOW BUY THRESHOLD (0.65).** Market conditions: elevated geopolitical stress (806 GDELT events), rising VIX (16.44, +3.98%), rising 10Y yield (4.48%), moderate oil (WTI $68.61, stable). **Combined scores:** GOOGL 0.612, AMD 0.610, UNH 0.592, AMZN 0.573, LMT 0.571, DAL 0.565, CVX 0.550, PLTR 0.549. **Kronos forecasts:** AMZN +0.774, PLTR +0.634, GOOGL +0.571, UNH +0.476, DAL +0.182 (all bullish), AMD -1.000 (extreme bearish), CVX -0.515 (bearish), LMT -0.030 (neutral). **Quant scores:** AMD 0.468, CVX 0.455, DAL 0.453, UNH 0.451, GOOGL 0.436, AMZN 0.425, LMT 0.424, PLTR 0.390. **StockScout VST:** All Pi's Watch List stocks showing BUY→HOLD (downgraded by geo stress filter). Top scores: LLY 1.55, GOOGL 1.50, AMD 1.46, GOOGL 1.50, UNH 1.30, AMZN 1.18. **Decision:** None meet 0.65 BUY threshold. Geo stress (806 events, elevated) + rising VIX + rising yields suppress all scores below entry bar. **HOLDING 100% CASH ($102,048.63).** Awaiting cleaner setup and lower geopolitical stress. No positions executed. Market open session. | No trades |
| 2026-07-04 | ALL | 💰 HELD CASH | N/A | **EOD UPDATE (3:25 PM UTC).** Portfolio 100% cash ($102,048.63). No open positions. Weekend — market closed. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$2,048.63. | No trade |
| 2026-07-03 | ALL | 💰 HELD CASH | 0.71-0.88 | **ALL 8 CORE STOCKS BELOW BUY THRESHOLD (0.65).** Market conditions: elevated geopolitical stress (906 GDELT events), weak SPY momentum (-1.25% 20d), rising 10Y yield (4.48%), low VIX (15.93, bullish but alone insufficient). **Combined scores:** AMD 0.876 (highest), GOOGL 0.800, PLTR 0.788, AMZN 0.794, LMT 0.778, DAL 0.763, UNH 0.717, CVX 0.711. **Kronos forecasts:** AMD +1.000 (strong bullish), GOOGL +0.355, AMZN +0.318, PLTR +0.208 (all bullish), CVX -0.486, UNH -0.422 (bearish). **Quant scores:** AMD 0.658, CVX 0.645, DAL 0.643, UNH 0.641, GOOGL 0.627, AMZN 0.616, LMT 0.614, PLTR 0.580. **Decision:** None meet 0.65 BUY threshold. Geo stress (906 events) + weak momentum + rising yields suppress all scores below entry bar. **HOLDING 100% CASH ($102,048.63).** Awaiting cleaner technical setup and lower geopolitical stress. No positions executed. | No trades |
| 2026-06-25 | ALL | 🔵 EOD | — | EOD price update — API returned null prices. 8 open positions: CVX, GOOGL, AMD, FANG, MPC, UNH, LLY, BAC. Cash $28,490.70. | 9:30 PM ET |
| 2026-06-25 | AMZN | ✅ SELL | 0.42 | Kronos direction -1.000 (extreme bearish 24h forecast). Closed 42 sh @ $243.05 (entry $236.28), +2.86% gain, ~$284 profit. | Executed signal_id 1277139 |
| 2026-06-25 | PLTR | ✅ SELL | 0.47 | VST 0.76 (SELL signal from StockScout), CS below 0.50. Closed 80 sh @ $128.65 (entry $123.99), +3.76% gain, ~$373 profit. | Executed signal_id 1277140 |
| 2026-06-25 | LMT | ✅ SELL | 0.48 | Kronos direction -0.203 (bearish 24h forecast). Closed 20 sh @ $511.04 (entry $497.49), +2.72% gain, ~$271 profit. | Executed signal_id 1277141 |
| 2026-06-25 | EOG | ❌ HOLD CASH | 0.58 | StockScout #1 BUY (VST 1.29), but Kronos -0.355 (bearish). Elevated geostress (849 GDELT). Conflicting signals → hold cash. | No action |
| 2026-06-25 | ALL | ℹ️ PORTFOLIO HOLD | n/a | No clear BUY signals (all downgraded to HOLD except EOG). Maintain 8 strong positions: CVX, GOOGL, AMD, FANG, MPC, UNH, LLY, BAC. Cash: ~$31,879. | Portfolio stable |
| 2026-04-08 | DAL | ❌ NOT EXECUTED | n/a | Auth error — expired registration token used instead of session token | Signal published only |
| 2026-04-08 | UAL | ❌ NOT EXECUTED | n/a | Same auth error | Signal published only |
| 2026-04-08 | CL | ❌ NOT EXECUTED | n/a | Same auth error | Signal published only |
| 2026-04-09 | GOOGL | 🟡 HELD CASH | 0.55 | PCE gate ✅ (3.0%) but WTI $99 + GDELT 996 dual suppressors active | No trade submitted |
| 2026-04-10 | GOOGL | 🟡 HELD CASH | 0.55 | WTI $95.63 (need <$85) + GDELT 1086 (need <800) — both suppressors active | API error on price endpoint (X-Claw-Token vs Bearer — fixed Apr 11) |
| 2026-04-13 | ALL | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.311–0.481 | DUAL SUPPRESSOR CRITICAL: WTI $104.10 (+7.8%) on Trump Hormuz blockade. VIX +11% to 21.35. GDELT >1000. Oil filter = 0.10 (floor). Geo stress = 0.10 (floor). All combined scores collapsed to SELL range. Pre-market — market closed. | Market closed |
| 2026-04-13 | GOOGL | 🔴 NO HYPO ENTRY | 0.481 | CS 0.481 below even HOLD threshold (0.50). Even without suppressors, GOOGL does not meet BUY bar today due to VIX/yield headwinds. Current price $313.93. | N/A — below threshold |
| 2026-04-14 | ALL | 🟡 HELD CASH | 0.438–0.541 | Iran-US nuclear talks reopening → VIX fell to 18.13 (−5.18%), WTI $96.31 (−2.8%). Major improvement but WTI still $85-$100 → oil filter 0.3 (not unlocked). GDELT 858 (800-1000) → geo stress 0.3. No stock above 0.65 BUY threshold. GOOGL leads at 0.541 (HOLD). Market pre-open — bank earnings day (JPM/JNJ/WFC/C/BLK all BMO). Holding cash pending post-market signal update. | Login refreshed. No trade submitted. |
| 2026-06-15 | ALL | 🟡 HELD CASH | — | EOD update: AI-Trader confirmed 0 open positions, cash $100,019.43. No positions to price. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$58.99. Market closed (post-hours 9:30 PM ET). | No trade |
| 2026-06-21 | ALL | 🟡 HELD CASH | — | EOD update: AI-Trader confirmed 0 open positions, cash $100,019.43. No positions to price. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$58.99. Weekend — market closed. | No trade |
| 2026-06-21 | ALL | 🟡 HELD CASH | — | EOD update #2 (13:54 UTC): 0 open positions, cash $100,019.43. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$58.99. Weekend — market closed. | No trade |
| 2026-06-21 | ALL | 🟡 HELD CASH | — | EOD update #3 (14:03 UTC): 0 open positions, cash $100,019.43. Shadow P&L unchanged at +$58.99. Weekend — market closed. | No trade |
How the Combined Score Works
Fundamental Law
IR = IC × √N. Combining 10 signals at IC 0.06 each outperforms one signal at IC 0.10 alone.
Signal Weights
Each signal weighted by independent predictive contribution ÷ noise. High IC + low vol = higher weight.
Trade Threshold
CS ≥ 0.62 = BUY · CS 0.56–0.62 = BUY (½) · CS 0.48–0.56 = HOLD · CS < 0.48 = SELL.
Position Sizing
Empirical Kelly adjusted for estimation uncertainty. Max 10% portfolio per name.