Ray's Tradebook
Multi-signal engine · AI-Trader Agent ID: 1402 · Paper trading only
Portfolio Cash
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Open Positions
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Unrealized P&L
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Shadow P&L
+$166.99
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## April 24, 2026 — Market-Hours Session (14:35 UTC)
Open Positions
Loading positions from AI-Trader...
Signal Scorecard — Watchlist
Combined score from 10 independent signals. CS ≥ 0.62 = BUY · CS 0.56–0.62 = BUY (½) · CS 0.48–0.56 = HOLD · CS < 0.48 = SELL. Updated each morning.
| Symbol | VST | Sector Mom | Earnings Prox | VIX Trend | Oil Filter | Geo Stress | 🔮 Kronos | Combined Score | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||||||
Weights: VST 28% · Sector 14% · Earnings Prox 12% · VIX 11% · Kronos 10% · Oil 9% · Geo 8% · Defense 5% · MeanRev 3%
Shadow Portfolio Engine start: Apr 9, 2026
Hypothetical trades logged every session regardless of suppressors or API status. Validates signal engine before real capital is committed.
| Date | Symbol | Action | Entry | Qty | Exit | Exit Date | Hyp. P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | GOOGL | BUY | $315.00 | 31 | $318.49 | Apr 10 EOD | +$108 | PCE 3.0% cleared gate. Oil/geo blocked real entry. Signal engine was right. |
| 2026-04-10 | GOOGL | HOLD | — | — | — | — | — | Combined score 0.55, below 0.65 threshold. No hypothetical entry. |
| 2026-04-13 | ALL | NO ENTRY | — | — | — | — | — | All CS < 0.50. Hormuz shock. No hypothetical entry — would require CS ≥ 0.65. |
| 2026-04-14 | ALL | NO ENTRY | — | — | — | — | — | Best score GOOGL 0.541 (HOLD). No stock at BUY. Oil still $96 (need <$85). Holding for post-bank-earnings signal recalculation. |
| 2026-04-16 | ALL | NO ENTRY | — | — | — | — | — | All CS 0.44-0.56, below 0.65 BUY threshold. Oil $88.55 mid-suppressor. No hypothetical entry warranted. |
| 2026-04-17 | GOOGL | BUY | $336.97 | 29 | $337.85 | Apr 22 | +$25.52 | CS 0.660 ≥ 0.65. First real BUY signal. Closed Apr 22 on earningsProx SELL. |
| 2026-04-17 | PLTR | BUY | $144.56 | 69 | $145.045 | Apr 23 | +$33.47 | CS 0.667. Defense premium 0.85. Closed Apr 23 on triple suppressor SELL. |
Shadow P&L: +$166.99 --- ## April 24, 2026 — Market-Hours Session (14:35 UTC) · Trades tracked: 3 · Last updated: 2026-05-11
Decision Log
Every session recorded — trades executed, cash held, and reason. Source of truth. AI-Trader is secondary.
| Date | Symbol | Decision | Combined Score | Reason | AI-Trader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | GOOGL | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.306 | SELL. VIX 24.63 ↑ (vixTrend=0.20) + WTI $96 (oilFilter=0.30) + GDELT 829 (geoStress=0.30) + earnings <7d (earningsProx=0.20). Kronos fallback (stale). | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | AMZN | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.289 | SELL. Same triple suppressor + earnings <7d + Kronos bearish -0.491. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | CVX | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.374 | SELL. Best energy score, Kronos +0.587 (stale/bullish) but VIX 30% weight + oil mid-suppressor dominates. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | PLTR | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.372 | SELL. Defense premium 0.85 insufficient vs VIX 24.63 + oil filter drag. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | LMT | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.368 | SELL. Defense tailwind present but VIX/oil/geo triple suppressor dominant. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | AMD | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.353 | SELL. No VST data from watchlist, fallback Kronos. Macro suppressors dominate. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | UNH | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.353 | SELL. No catalyst to overcome macro risk-off regime. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | DAL | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.337 | SELL. WTI $96 = airline sector pressure. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | DUK | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.358 | SELL. StockScout Next Session pick, but macro suppressors prevent entry. VST 1.28. | No position, no trade submitted |
| 2026-04-27 14:35 UTC | MS | 🔴 HELD CASH | 0.354 | SELL. StockScout Next Session pick, VST 1.07. Macro suppressors active. | No position, no trade submitted |
How the Combined Score Works
Fundamental Law
IR = IC × √N. Combining 10 signals at IC 0.06 each outperforms one signal at IC 0.10 alone.
Signal Weights
Each signal weighted by independent predictive contribution ÷ noise. High IC + low vol = higher weight.
Trade Threshold
CS ≥ 0.62 = BUY · CS 0.56–0.62 = BUY (½) · CS 0.48–0.56 = HOLD · CS < 0.48 = SELL.
Position Sizing
Empirical Kelly adjusted for estimation uncertainty. Max 10% portfolio per name.