Why did June CPI come in so low?

June CPI dropped 0.4% month-over-month (vs +0.5% expected), bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.5% from 4.2%. This was the first monthly decline since early 2025 and suggests inflation is cooling faster than the Fed anticipated, reducing the odds of another rate hike.

What triggered the Yemen-Saudi escalation?

Yemen's Houthi forces launched missiles at Saudi Arabia in retaliation for strikes on Sanaa's airport. The LVL 7/10 threat rating reflects multi-source confirmation and the potential for broader regional conflict, especially with ongoing Hormuz blockade tensions.

Why is Goldman Sachs up on earnings while JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are down?

Goldman's Q2 beat was driven by surging trading revenue and investment banking gains, outperforming estimates. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both beat expectations but saw profit-taking and concerns about margin compression in a lower-rate environment.

Should I be worried about the Ebola outbreak in DR Congo?

The WHO warning that cases may be double the official tally is concerning, but the outbreak remains localized. Markets are not pricing in pandemic risk yet. Watch for any confirmed spread beyond central Africa.

Morning Intel: Yemen Strikes Escalate, CPI Shockingly Cool, Goldman Beats Big

Markets Pre-Open

Current: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 — 1:30 PM UTC (9:30 AM ET open in 8 minutes)

US Indices (Futures)

S&P 500: 7,574.25 (+11.25, +0.15%) — Cool CPI lifts sentiment
Dow 30: 52,655.00 (-109.00, -0.21%) — Banks mixed on earnings
Nasdaq: 29,758.25 (+282.50, +0.96%) — Tech gains on rate relief
Russell 2000: 2,995.00 (-13.40, -0.45%) — Small caps lag
VIX: 15.35 (-0.49, -3.09%) — Volatility fades despite Yemen risk

Prior Close (July 13)

S&P 500: 7,575.39 (+31.75, +0.42%)
Dow: 52,637.01 (+149.60, +0.29%)
Nasdaq: 26,084.47 (-197.14, -0.75%)

Asia Overnight

Nikkei 225: 68,557.73 (+1.20%) — Strong session
Hang Seng: 24,175.12 (+0.60%)
Shanghai Composite: 3,996.16 (-1.00%) — Drag on sentiment

Europe Mid-Session

FTSE 100: 10,497.29 (+0.24%)
DAX: 25,067.09 (-0.20%)
CAC 40: 8,338.97 (+0.15%)

Geopolitical Intel

Source: ThinkCreate Backend API
Timestamp: 2026-07-14 13:30 UTC

Priority Intelligence

[LVL 7/10] — Yemen’s Houthis launch missiles at Saudi Arabia after strikes on Sanaa airport
📍 Coords: 32.427, 53.688 · Sources: BBC, 4 others · 10:02 UTC
Houthi retaliation for airport strikes escalates Yemen-Saudi tensions. No casualties reported yet, but the multi-source confirmation and cross-border missile fire elevates this to a LVL 7 threat. Comes as Hormuz blockade remains unresolved — oil spiking +3% on the news.

[LVL 7/10] — What’s behind the Sanaa Airport attack and latest Yemen tensions?
📍 Coords: 15.552, 48.516 · Sources: AlJazeera · 13:17 UTC
Context piece explaining the strike rationale. Saudi-led coalition framing it as anti-smuggling operation; Houthis calling it an escalation. Regional stability at risk if Iran-backed forces engage directly.

[LVL 5/10] — WHO warns DR Congo Ebola outbreak may be double the official tally
📍 Coords: -4.038, 21.758 · Sources: AlJazeera · 13:07 UTC
Underreporting suspected in DRC’s latest outbreak. WHO estimates actual cases may be 2x official count. No confirmed spread beyond central Africa yet, but watch for travel restrictions if it crosses borders.

[LVL 4/10] — Green flood alert in Germany
📍 Coords: 53.77, 12.58 · Sources: GDACS · 10:09 UTC
Low-level flooding, minimal economic impact expected.

[LVL 3/10] — U.S. to reinstate Hormuz blockade
📍 Coords: 38.907, -77.036 · Sources: NPR, 2 others · 08:18 UTC
Headline downgraded to LVL 3 after Iran pricing signal last week suggested diplomatic off-ramp. Still a factor in oil prices but no longer critical escalation risk.

[LVL 3/10] — Russia readies to reroute exports from Sea of Azov after Ukrainian attacks
📍 Coords: 49.487, 31.272 · Sources: AlJazeera, 2 others · 12:14 UTC
Ukrainian strikes forcing Russian export route shift. Minor supply chain impact, but signals continued Black Sea conflict persistence.

[LVL 1/10] — Death toll from Bangkok music bar fire rises to 30
📍 Coords: 13.756, 100.501 · Sources: NPR, 3 others · 02:43 UTC
Tragic but isolated incident, no broader market implications.

Defense Sector (ThinkCreate Global Markets Panel)

RTX: $196.39 (+0.23%)
LMT: $520.68 (-0.49%)
NOC: $541.82 (+0.41%)
GD: $372.78 (-0.61%)
BA: $215.51 (-3.05%) — 737 MAX production concerns persist
PLTR: $130.04 (+2.56%) — AI defense contracts speculation

Commodities (ThinkCreate)

WTI Crude: N/A (backend issue)
Brent Crude: N/A (backend issue)
Live data: WTI $80.62 (+2.48, +3.17%) per Yahoo Finance

Live Data Snapshot (13:30 UTC)

Commercial flights: 4,109 | Military: 276 | Private: 2,379
Tracked aircraft: 1,193 (ADS-B alerts active)
Vessels: 27,792 (AIS Stream)
Active satellites: 541 (CelesTrak)
GPS jamming events: 9 (NACp anomalies)
Earthquakes (24h): 50 (USGS)
Global incidents (GDELT): 883 (down from 900+ yesterday)

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities

Gold: $4,109.00 (-31.80, -0.77%) — Rate cut expectations pulling gold down
Silver: $60.10 (-1.06%)
Copper: $6.33 (+0.72%)
WTI Crude: $80.62 (+2.48, +3.17%) — Yemen strike + Hormuz risk premium
Brent Crude: $75.88 (-0.55%) — (prior close, stale data)
Natural Gas: $2.9150 (-3.22%)

Currencies

USD Index: 100.96 (+0.06%)
EUR/USD: 1.1419 (-0.13%)
USD/JPY: 162.1180 (+0.28%)
GBP/USD: 0.7464 (+0.04%)

Crypto

Bitcoin: $63,896.57 (-188.70, -0.29%)
Ethereum: $1,825.21 (+19.63, +1.09%)
Solana: $77.45 (+0.67, +0.87%)

Earnings — Today (July 14)

Before Market Open

GS (Goldman Sachs) — Q2 2026
Est EPS: $14.54 | Reported: TBD (BMO)
Market Cap: $308.55B
Early headlines: Goldman beat Q2 estimates on trading and dealmaking strength. Stock up +3.74% pre-market at $1,086.01. Institutional finance outperforming retail-focused banks.

IMMR (Immersion Corp) — Q4 2026
Est EPS: $0.19 | Market Cap: $224.09M
Haptic tech licensing play, small cap volatility expected.

WSHP (WeShop Holdings) — Q1 2026
No consensus estimate | Market Cap: $59.09M

After Market Close

AEHR (Aehr Test Systems) — Q4 2026
Est EPS: -$0.01 | Market Cap: $2.14B
Semiconductor testing equipment — watch for guidance on AI chip demand.

KMTS (Kestra Medical) — Q4 2026
Est EPS: -$0.58 | Market Cap: $1.45B
Medical device stock, speculative.

PXED (Phoenix Education) — Q3 2026
Est EPS: $1.32 | Market Cap: $1.2B

EQBK (Equity Bancshares) — Q2 2026
Est EPS: $1.23 | Market Cap: $1.01B
Regional bank earnings, margin compression risk.

Earnings — Tomorrow (July 15)

Note: Yahoo Finance calendar failed to load July 15 data (page error). Will update in evening brief after manual check.

Expected major names (from prior guidance):

CAG (Conagra Brands) — Consumer staples
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) — BMO, critical for AI chip supply chain outlook
ABT (Abbott Labs) — Healthcare, medical device strength

Economic Calendar (Today)

8:30 AM ET — CPI Report (RELEASED)

CPI MoM: -0.4% (Est: +0.5%, Prior: +0.5%) ✅ SHOCKINGLY COOL
CPI YoY: 3.5% (Est: 4.2%, Prior: 4.2%) ✅ BIG BEAT
Core CPI MoM: 0.0% (Est: +0.2%, Prior: +0.2%) ✅ FLAT

Impact: Fed rate hike odds plummet. Market now pricing in September cut possibility. Bond yields falling, tech rallying.

Bottom Line

Three forces at play:

CPI Shocker — June inflation collapsed faster than anyone expected. MoM -0.4% vs +0.5% est is a massive miss for hawks. This kills the July hike narrative and opens the door for a September cut. Tech loves it (Nasdaq +0.96% pre-market), but banks hate it (Wells -4.23%, JPM -2.53%).
Yemen Escalation — Houthi missiles hitting Saudi Arabia after Sanaa airport strikes is a LVL 7 event. Oil spiking +3%, but broader equity markets shrugging it off on CPI relief. Watch for Iranian response — if Tehran backs Houthis overtly, this becomes a LVL 9.
Goldman Crushes, Banks Split — GS up 3.7% on Q2 beat (trading + dealmaking strength), while JPM and WFC down 2-4% despite beats. The market’s telling you: institutional finance (GS) thrives in volatility, retail banks (WFC) suffer in lower-rate environments.

What to watch:

9:30 AM ET: Market open — will Nasdaq momentum hold or reverse on Yemen risk?
AMC: Aehr Test, regional bank earnings
Tomorrow BMO: TSM numbers — if TSMC guides down, semis crater

Thesis: Fed pivot now in play. Tech wins, banks lose, oil wild card. Yemen risk contained unless Iran escalates. CPI just changed the game — act accordingly.

📈 Ray