MARKETS PRE-OPEN
US Futures (as of 9:29 AM ET)
- S&P 500: 7,653.91 (-0.24%)
- Dow: 53,290.83 (+0.03%)
- Nasdaq: 26,040.41 (-0.48%)
- Russell 2000: 3,017.87 (+0.85%)
- VIX: 15.84 (+4.69%)
Mixed open — tech under light pressure, small caps green, VIX ticking up but still subdued.
Asia Overnight
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 65,528.09 | -0.74% |
| Hang Seng | 25,517.33 | -1.89% |
| KOSPI | 6,696.96 | -3.12% |
| Shanghai (SSE) | 3,882.01 | -0.59% |
| India (SENSEX) | 77,369.11 | -0.22% |
South Korea down 3.1% — joint US-South Korea marine drills canceled, defense cooperation paused as US redirects forces to Iran theater.
Europe Mid-Session
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,802.72 | -0.13% |
| DAX | 26,082.42 | -0.21% |
| CAC 40 | 8,448.53 | -0.42% |
| EURO STOXX 50 | 6,442.95 | -0.30% |
Flat to down — Europe treading water ahead of US inflation data.
GEOPOLITICAL INTEL
THINKCREATEINTEL // GLOBAL THREAT INTERCEPT
[2026-08-24 13:30 UTC]
PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE
| LVL | Headline | Time (UTC) | Source | Coords |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/10 | Argentina retires the jets that sank two British ships in the 1982 war | 06:22 | Mercopress +3 | -38.416, -63.616 |
| 5/10 | South Korea says US cancelled upcoming joint marine exercises over Iran war | 12:28 | AlJazeera +3 | 38.907, -77.036 |
| 5/10 | Russia’s second-biggest online retailer targeted in Ukrainian strikes | 10:40 | BBC +1 | 61.524, 105.318 |
| 4/10 | Green notification for tropical cyclone ISELLE-26 | 15:12 | GDACS +1 | 17.8, -116.2 |
| 3/10 | As Canada readies retaliatory tariffs, Mark Carney says his nation is ‘at war’ with U.S. | Sat 00:36 | NPR +2 | 56.13, -106.346 |
| 3/10 | A Drone Killed Three Ukrainians. It Was Guided Entirely by A.I. | 09:29 | NYT +1 | N/A |
| 3/10 | Burnham picks Kyiv for his first foreign trip as British prime minister | 07:28 | Mercopress +2 | 49.487, 31.272 |
Analyst Note:
Argentina phasing out A-4 Skyhawks — symbolic close to Falklands era. US-South Korea drill cancellation is the signal: resources are pivoting to Iran, not expanding Pacific posture. Drone warfare escalating in Ukraine — fully autonomous kill confirmed by NYT. Canada-US tariff war still simmering (Carney rhetoric). Iran situation quieter today = markets less defensive.
DEFENSE STOCKS (from ThinkCreate Global Markets panel)
| Ticker | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | $209.91 | -1.12% |
| LMT | $563.57 | -1.38% |
| NOC | $551.03 | -2.28% |
| GD | $384.29 | -0.46% |
| BA | $214.20 | -0.42% |
| PLTR | $179.94 | +3.44% |
Defense sector down 0.5%–2.3% (ex-PLTR). Conflict premium fading as oil stabilizes.
SIGINT INTERCEPT
Scanner feeds unavailable (API issue).
LIVE DATA SNAPSHOT
- Commercial flights: 5,942 | Military: 237 | Private: 3,306
- Tracked/flagged aircraft: 1,412
- Vessels (ships): 28,728
- Active satellites: 540
- GPS jamming events: 9
- Earthquakes (24h): 42
- Global incidents (GDELT): 819
COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES
Oil
- WTI Crude: $85.60 (-1.68%)
- Brent Crude: $93.49 (-0.95%)
Oil easing — down from crisis highs, settling into $85/$93 range. Iran premium still in, but weekend calm suggests no imminent escalation.
Metals
- Gold: $4,730.00 (+1.06%) — flight to safety bid still active
- Silver: $69.65 (+0.18%)
- Copper: $6.64 (+0.74%)
- Platinum: $1,898.90 (+0.17%)
Crypto
- Bitcoin: $78,915 (+1.85%)
- Ethereum: $2,504 (+1.84%)
- Solana: $96.03 (+0.70%)
Risk assets firming — crypto bid returning, gold still elevated.
Currencies
- EUR/USD: 1.1675 (-0.02%)
- USD/JPY: 159.12 (+0.11%)
- USD/CAD: 1.3823 (+0.44%) — tariff tension
- GBP/USD: 0.7329 (+0.03%)
Dollar steady, CAD weakening on tariff headlines.
Bonds
- 10Y Treasury: 4.72% (-0.38%)
- 30Y Treasury: 5.25% (-0.57%)
Yields falling — flight to quality still in play.
EARNINGS — TODAY (Monday, August 24)
REPORTED (BMO/TAS completed)
| Ticker | Company | Est EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | PDD Holdings | $18.35 | $19.33 | +5.3% ✅ | Beat, but guidance soft — stock +2.2% pre-market |
| XPEV | XPeng | -$0.76 | -$1.29 | -68.6% ❌ | Big miss, but robotics unit raised $900M at $6.3B valuation — stock -2.9% |
| NSSC | Napco Security | $0.38 | $0.50 | +31.6% ✅ | Blowout quarter, record revenue — stock +20% 🔥 |
UPCOMING (AMC today)
| Ticker | Company | Time | Est EPS | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDS | Woodside Energy | AMC | — | $46.25B |
| ANAB | AnaptysBio | AMC | $0.14 | $1.71B |
| TUYA | Tuya Inc. | AMC | $0.03 | $1.1B |
| AVXL | Anavex Life Sciences | AMC | -$0.08 | $300M |
EARNINGS — TOMORROW (Tuesday, August 25)
Key names reporting Tuesday (34 total):
Details unavailable (will pull tomorrow morning). Watch for guidance commentary on tariffs, Iran exposure, and defense spending shifts.
EARNINGS — WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26 (THE BIG DAY)
| Ticker | Company | Time | Est EPS | Market Cap | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | AMC | — | $5.2T | AI bellwether — Q2 data center demand, Blackwell ramp |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | AMC | — | — | Cybersecurity post-outage recovery |
| CRM | Salesforce | AMC | — | — | Enterprise SaaS health check |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | AMC | — | — | PC demand, corporate IT spend |
Wednesday = Make or Break Week. NVDA sets the tone for tech.
KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS
Tuesday, August 26:
- 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (prev 3.3% YoY) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
- 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (prev 3.7% YoY)
If PCE comes in hot (>3.3%), expect:
- Risk-off, yields up, rate cut hopes fade
- Tech/growth stocks under pressure
- Defense/value rotation
If PCE cools (<3.3%):
- Risk-on, tech rallies
- Rate cut pricing improves
BOTTOM LINE
Markets treading water — futures mixed, VIX at 15.84 (still calm), oil easing to $85 (Iran premium shrinking). US-South Korea drill cancellation is the tell: forces are shifting to Middle East, not expanding Indo-Pacific ops. Defense stocks down as conflict premium fades.
Earnings momentum: NSSC crushed it (+20%), PDD beat but cautious, XPEV missed but robotics story intact. Eyes on Wednesday: NVIDIA earnings will set the tech tone for the rest of the month.
Cross-currents: PCE inflation data Tuesday + NVDA earnings Wednesday = big volatility risk. If PCE hot + NVDA disappoints, expect a sharp pullback. If both come in clean, tech rallies into September.
What to watch:
- Oil direction — if WTI holds $85-$90, conflict risk is contained
- VIX behavior — sub-16 = market thinks worst is over
- NVIDIA guidance — Blackwell ramp commentary will move semis
- PCE print — hot = Fed stays tight, cool = rate cut hope returns
Positioning: Defensive tilt fading, but don’t chase until NVDA/PCE clear. Risk-on trade needs confirmation.
Ray’s Daily Brief — signals.themenonlab.com