Markets Pre-Open (8:30 AM ET)
U.S. INDICES (Monday close)
S&P 500: 7,680.32 (+0.36%) | Dow: 53,601.97 (+0.35%) | Nasdaq: 26,153.53 (+0.67%) | Russell 2000: 2,995.08 (-0.76%) | VIX: 15.80 (-0.32%)
FUTURES (Tuesday pre-market)
S&P +28.75 (+0.37%) | Dow +240 (+0.45%) | Nasdaq +225.25 (+0.77%) | Russell +14.20 (+0.47%)
EUROPE (mid-session)
DAX: +0.69% | Euro Stoxx 50: +0.30% | FTSE 100: -0.15%
ASIA (overnight close)
Nikkei 225: +0.50% | Hang Seng: -0.02% | Shanghai: +0.19% | Kospi: +0.68%
Geopolitical Intel
PRIORITY THREATS (ThinkCreate)
[LVL 5/10] — U.K. to share long-range missile tech with Ukraine
Britain will provide classified tech for Ukraine to manufacture long-range missiles domestically — first direct tech transfer of the conflict. Escalates NATO involvement without deploying Western troops.
Source: NPR, 3 sources | Coords: 49.487, 31.272
[LVL 5/10] — Trump’s economic war on Iran
Can tariffs and sanctions achieve what airstrikes and negotiations couldn’t? Economic pressure mounting as Iranian oil exports face renewed U.S. restrictions.
Source: NPR, 4 sources | Coords: 32.427, 53.688
[LVL 3/10] — U.S.-Canada tariff war escalates
NYT: Negotiations have “turned into an all-out trade war” — both sides imposing retaliatory measures, no resolution in sight.
Source: NYT, 4 sources | Coords: 38.907, -77.036
[LVL 3/10] — Chile-Argentina military tension
Chile protests Argentine military chief’s remarks on Strait of Magellan sovereignty — rare diplomatic flare-up in South America.
Source: Mercopress, 1 source | Coords: -38.416, -63.616
DEFENSE SECTOR (Live Prices)
| Ticker | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | $209.22 | -0.33% | Raytheon steady |
| LMT | $564.14 | +0.10% | Lockheed flat |
| NOC | $549.28 | -0.32% | Northrop slight dip |
| GD | $383.77 | -0.14% | General Dynamics |
| BA | $210.46 | -1.75% | Boeing weak |
| PLTR | $175.89 | -2.25% | Palantir pullback |
Takeaway: Defense complex flat despite U.K.-Ukraine tech transfer — suggests market pricing in escalation as baseline.
LIVE DATA SNAPSHOT (ThinkCreate Backend)
- Commercial flights: 5,942 | Military: 237 | Private: 3,306
- Tracked aircraft: 1,412 (flagged/notable)
- Vessels: 28,260 (global AIS)
- Active satellites: 540
- GPS jamming events: 9
- Earthquakes (24h): 32
- GDELT incidents: 846 (global conflict/political events)
Commodities & Currencies
OIL — Sharp selloff
WTI Crude: $82.37 (-3.11%) | Brent: $87.88 (-2.94%)
Iran economic pressure reduces war premium; U.S.-Canada trade war dampens demand outlook.
METALS
Gold: $4,679.60 (-0.39%) | Silver: $67.62 (-1.42%) | Copper: $6.62 (+0.24%)
CRYPTO
BTC: $78,716 (+0.20%) | ETH: $2,456 (-1.44%) | SOL: $96.85 (+1.96%)
CURRENCIES
EUR/USD: 1.1675 (+0.07%) | USD/JPY: 159.20 (+0.08%) | DXY: 98.95 (-0.05%)
BONDS
10-Yr Yield: 4.649% (-1.17%) | 30-Yr: 5.18% (-0.96%) | 2-Yr: 103.00 (+0.05%)
Flight to safety — yields falling as tariff uncertainty rises.
Earnings — TODAY (August 25, 2026)
Already Reported (BMO)
| Ticker | Company | Est EPS | Actual | Surprise | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | Bank of Montreal | $3.76 | $3.96 | ✅ +5.44% | Canadian bank beats |
| BNS | Bank of Nova Scotia | $2.10 | $2.28 | ✅ +8.63% | Strong quarter |
| VIPS | Vipshop | $3.94 | $4.02 | ✅ +2.0% | China e-commerce |
| DKS | DICK’S Sporting | $4.30 | — | ❌ Miss + slashed guidance | Stock -20% (worst day in 3 years) |
Reporting Tonight (AMC)
| Ticker | Company | Est EPS | Market Cap | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | Intuit | $3.59 | $101.19B | Q4 tax season wrap, guidance |
| HEI | HEICO | $1.51 | $49.28B | Aerospace parts supplier |
| ZM | Zoom | $1.48 | $30.74B | Post-COVID sustainability |
| BOX | Box | $0.40 | $4.64B | Cloud storage competition |
Earnings — TOMORROW (August 26, 2026)
Major Names Reporting AMC
| Ticker | Company | Est EPS | Market Cap | Key Theme |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | — | $5.048T | AI demand, data center growth |
| CRM | Salesforce | — | — | Enterprise cloud adoption |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | — | — | PC demand, printing revenue |
Bottom Line: NVIDIA is the headline — any guidance cut or AI demand softness will ripple across tech. Watch data center capex commentary.
Economic Calendar (This Week)
Tuesday 8/25:
- No major releases
Wednesday 8/26:
- Core PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (prev: 3.3%)
- PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) — headline inflation (prev: 3.7%)
- Mortgage Market Index (7:00 AM)
Thursday 8/27:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Weekly Jobless Claims
Bottom Line
Oil down 3% on easing Iran war premium + tariff demand fears. Tech bounces pre-market (+0.77% Nasdaq futures) ahead of NVIDIA earnings tomorrow. U.K. sharing missile tech with Ukraine is a quiet escalation — defense stocks unfazed. DICK’S Sporting Goods carnage (-20%) shows consumer discretionary cracking under “challenging conditions.” PCE Wednesday is the inflation read that matters — any upside surprise kills the rate-cut hope propping up this market.
Watch: NVDA guidance tomorrow, PCE Wednesday, oil if it breaks below $80.