Markets closed Monday mixed — Dow +0.26%, S&P -0.28%, Nasdaq -0.76%, Russell 2000 -0.76%. VIX spiked 4.76% to 15.85. Defense sector flat. Oil +0.20%, gold +0.80%, Bitcoin +1.61%.
GEOPOLITICAL INTEL
THINKCREATEINTEL // GLOBAL THREAT INTERCEPT
[2026-08-25 00:00 UTC]
── PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE ──
[LVL 5/10] — US public support for Iran war falls as Trump approval at record low: Poll
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:35:10 +0000 — AlJazeera, 6 sources
Coords: 38.907, -77.036
[LVL 5/10] — Russia’s second-biggest online retailer targeted in Ukrainian strikes
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:40:22 GMT — BBC, 1 sources
Coords: 61.524, 105.318
[LVL 4/10] — Green notification for tropical cyclone TEN-E-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (0 in Tropical Storm).
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:56:49 GMT — GDACS, 1 sources
Coords: 13.5, -120.8
[LVL 4/10] — Green forest fire notification in Tanzania
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:01:11 GMT — GDACS, 1 sources
Coords: -7.673, 34.176
[LVL 3/10] — Six months on, U.S. Navy families who evacuated Bahrain remain in limbo
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:22:13 -0400 — NPR, 2 sources
Coords: 32.427, 53.688
[LVL 3/10] — Israel warns of ‘forceful’ response to kites flown from Gaza
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:56:22 GMT — BBC, 2 sources
Coords: 31.046, 34.851
[LVL 3/10] — UK PM Burnham vows support for Ukraine despite ‘outrageous threats’ from Russia
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 17:29:59 GMT — BBC, 2 sources
Coords: 49.487, 31.272
[LVL 3/10] — A Drone Killed Three Ukrainians. It Was Guided Entirely by A.I.
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 14:24:53 +0000 — NYT, 1 sources
[LVL 3/10] — Milei links Lula to the case of the Argentine former adviser detained in Bolivia
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:26:00 GMT — Mercopress, 1 sources
DEFENSE MARKETS
RTX $209.22 (-0.33%) | LMT $564.14 (+0.10%) | NOC $549.28 (-0.32%)
GD $383.77 (-0.14%) | BA $210.46 (-1.75%) | PLTR $175.89 (-2.25%)
COMMODITIES:
WTI Crude: $85.19 (+0.21%) | Brent: $92.13 (-0.04%)
LIVE DATA SNAPSHOT
• Commercial flights: 5,942 | Military: 237 | Private: 3,306
• Tracked/flagged aircraft: 1,412
• Vessels (ships): 27,421
• Active satellites: 540
• GPS jamming events: 9
• Earthquakes (24h): 36
• Global incidents (GDELT): 1,081
MARKETS CLOSE
US INDICES
• S&P 500: 7,652.86 (-0.28%)
• Dow: 53,417.16 (+0.26%)
• Nasdaq: 25,980.19 (-0.76%)
• Russell 2000: 2,995.08 (-0.76%)
• VIX: 15.85 (+4.76%) ⚠️
FUTURES (after-hours)
• S&P / Dow / Nasdaq / Russell 2000 — flat to slightly down
EUROPE
• FTSE 100: 10,854.32 (+0.35%)
• DAX: 26,106.60 (-0.11%)
• CAC 40: 8,453.01 (-0.37%)
• EURO STOXX 50: 6,447.98 (-0.22%)
ASIA (overnight)
• Nikkei 225: 65,528.09 (-0.74%)
• Hang Seng: 25,517.33 (-1.89%)
• SSE Composite: 3,882.01 (-0.59%)
• KOSPI: 6,696.96 (-3.12%) ⚠️
COMMODITIES
• Gold: $4,735.50 (+0.80%)
• Silver: $69.61 (+1.49%)
• Platinum: $1,903.90 (+0.78%)
• WTI Crude: $85.19 (+0.21%)
• Brent Crude: $92.13 (-0.04%)
• Natural Gas: $2.8030 (-1.13%)
• Copper: $6.62 (+0.20%)
CRYPTO
• BTC: $78,979.08 (+1.61%)
• ETH: $2,481.61 (+0.73%)
• SOL: $98.47 (+3.17%)
• XRP: $1.48 (-2.64%)
CURRENCIES
• EUR/USD: 1.1671 (+0.04%)
• USD/JPY: 159.1360 (+0.04%)
• USD/GBP: 0.7333 (-0.03%)
• DXY (Dollar Index): 98.99 (-0.02%)
BONDS
• 10Y Treasury: 4.7040% (-0.72%)
• 30Y Treasury: 5.23% (-0.85%)
• 5Y Treasury: 4.4080% (-0.36%)
EARNINGS — TOMORROW (TUESDAY, AUGUST 26)
After-Market Close:
| Symbol | Company | Market Cap | Est EPS | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | $101.19B | 3.59 | AMC |
| ZM | Zoom Communications | $30.74B | 1.48 | AMC |
| HEI | HEICO Corporation | $49.28B | 1.51 | AMC |
| SMTC | Semtech Corporation | $11.26B | 0.61 | AMC |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | $4.64B | 0.40 | AMC |
| JOYY | JOYY Inc. | $3.7B | 1.20 | AMC |
| NCNO | nCino, Inc. | $2.3B | 0.27 | AMC |
| QFIN | Qfin Holdings | $1.34B | 7.07 | AMC |
| NOAH | Noah Holdings | $597M | TBD | AMC |
| ELMD | Electromed, Inc. | $334M | 0.32 | AMC |
Before-Market Open:
| Symbol | Company | Market Cap | Est EPS | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | Bank of Montreal | $120.72B | 3.76 | BMO |
| BNS | Bank of Nova Scotia | $106.08B | 2.10 | BMO |
| DKS | DICK’S Sporting Goods | $16.05B | 4.30 | BMO |
| GFI | Gold Fields Limited | $42.33B | TBD | BMO |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | $7.36B | 0.94 | BMO |
| BZ | Kanzhun Limited | $6.9B | 2.17 | BMO |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings | $6.88B | 3.94 | BMO |
| MZTI | The Marzetti Company | $3.17B | 1.40 | BMO |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | $619M | -1.01 | BMO |
| ADUR | Aduro Clean Technologies | $540M | -0.12 | BMO |
Wednesday (Aug 27) — Major:
NVDA (NVIDIA) reports AMC — the week’s biggest tech earnings event.
BOTTOM LINE
VIX spike suggests nerves beneath surface calm. Defense flat despite Iran poll news. Tech weakness continues — Nasdaq -0.76%, NVDA -2.94%, AMD -3.49%, INTC -3.12%. Gold +0.80% and Bitcoin +1.61% show flight-to-safety positioning. Watch INTU/ZM after-hours tomorrow and NVDA Wednesday.
Analyst Note: US public Iran war support falling (LVL 5 intel) while defense stocks hold flat — market pricing in de-escalation despite VIX jump. Korea -3.12% selloff warrants monitoring. Tomorrow’s PCE data (8:30 AM ET) could move rates.