Earnings Recap: ASML & Bank of America — Q1 2026
April 15, 2026 · Both reported before market open
ASML (ASML) — Q1 2026 ✅ BEAT & RAISE
The Numbers
| Metric | Reported | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | €8.8B | €8.5B | ✅ +€300M |
| Net Profit | €2.8B | €2.5B | ✅ +€300M |
| 2026 Guidance | €36-40B | €34-39B prior | ✅ Raised |
What Drove the Beat
ASML makes the only machines on earth capable of producing the most advanced AI chips — extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that cost upwards of $400 million each. Q1 demand was dominated by memory (51% of new tool sales vs. 30% in Q4) as Samsung and SK Hynix race to expand AI-grade HBM capacity.
Key customer signal: TSMC last week reported record Q1 revenue — its capex expansion plans directly translate into ASML order flow.
CEO Christophe Fouquet: “The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments. Demand for chips is outpacing supply.”
The China Headwind
Despite the beat, ASML stock fell 6% on two concerns:
- China revenue collapsed — 19% of sales in Q1 vs. 36% in Q4 2025. US export controls are progressively cutting off ASML’s lower-end DUV machine sales to Chinese fabs.
- Order disclosure dropped — ASML stopped reporting order numbers this quarter. Management says intake is “very strong” but the opacity unsettled markets.
Geographic breakdown: South Korea 45% (Samsung/SK Hynix), Taiwan 23% (TSMC), China 19%.
Why It Still Matters
The China headwind is real but manageable. Every Western and Asian fab is accelerating. ASML guided to potentially delivering 80 of its low-NA EUV machines in 2027 (market hoped for 90). The AI semiconductor supercycle is intact — ASML is simply redistributing its revenue away from China toward Korea and Taiwan.
Signal implication: Bullish for AMD (AI GPU fab partners), GOOGL (data center chips), and the broader semiconductor complex. The AI infrastructure buildout has years to run.
Bank of America (BAC) — Q1 2026 ✅ BEAT & RAISE
The Numbers
| Metric | Reported | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.11 | $1.01 | ✅ +$0.10 (+10%) |
| Revenue | $30.43B | $29.93B | ✅ +$500M |
| Net Income | $8.6B (+17% YoY) | — | ✅ Record |
| NII | $15.9B | $15.67B | ✅ +$230M |
| Equities Trading | $2.83B | ~$2.48B | ✅ +$350M |
| Investment Banking | $1.8B | $1.73B | ✅ +$70M |
| Provision (Credit) | $1.3B | $1.5B | ✅ Lower (bullish) |
The Best Quarter in 20 Years
EPS of $1.11 is BAC’s highest in nearly two decades. The story is multi-pronged:
- Equities trading +30% — best quarter in 15 years. Iran war volatility was a gift to trading desks across Wall Street.
- NII +9% — rising loan/deposit balances and fixed-rate asset repricing are flowing through.
- Investment banking +21% — M&A and capital markets activity recovering from 2025 rate headwinds.
- Credit quality improving — provision fell to $1.3B, net charge-off ratio improved to 0.48%.
What the CEO Said
CEO Brian Moynihan on CNBC: “Right now, the company is performing well. The consumers are spending, the credit quality is very good and improving, and you see the corporate clients actually use their lines a little bit more.”
The raised NII guidance (6-8% from 5-7%) reflects confidence that the rate environment remains supportive.
The Miss: Fixed Income
One blemish — FICC (fixed income) revenue came in at ~$3.5B, roughly $330M below estimates. But this was overshadowed by equities trading’s historic outperformance.
What It Means
Bank earnings season is now effectively complete for the mega-banks. The scorecard: every major bank beat. The common thread — geopolitical volatility (Iran war) → exceptional trading revenues → record quarters. The consumer is holding up. Credit is clean. NII is recovering.
Signal: Macro resilient. US consumer spending intact. Favorable for broad market recovery thesis.
What’s Reporting Next
| Date | Company | Time | Consensus EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 AMC | Netflix (NFLX) | After close | ~$0.79 |
| Apr 16 BMO | Abbott Labs (ABT) | Before open | $1.15 |
| Apr 21 AMC | United Airlines (UAL) | After close | — |
Netflix results expected tonight after market close. Abbott Labs reports Thursday morning.
Ray’s signal engine · signals.themenonlab.com