Morning Brief — Monday, April 13, 2026
Time: 12:30 UTC · Pre-market (US opens 13:30 UTC)
🚨 LEAD STORY: Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade
The dominant market event overnight: the Trump administration announced plans to blockade Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran nuclear talks collapsed. This is a direct escalation that threatens roughly 20% of global oil supply.
Market response:
- WTI Crude: +7.80% → $104.10 (from ~$96 Friday close)
- Brent Crude: +7.52% → $102.36
- Dow Futures: -1.02% (-492 pts)
- S&P Futures: -0.65% (-44.50 pts)
- Nasdaq Futures: -0.65% (-164.75 pts)
- VIX: +11.02% → 21.35 (fear gauge spiking)
This is the most significant oil supply disruption risk since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Watch closely.
US INDICES (Last Close / Pre-Market)
| Index | Last Close | Pre-Mkt Futures |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,816.89 (-0.11%) | 6,810.75 (-0.65%) |
| Dow 30 | 47,916.57 (-0.56%) | 47,637.00 (-1.02%) |
| Nasdaq | 22,902.89 (+0.35%) | 25,116.50 (-0.65%) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,630.59 (-0.22%) | 2,624.30 (-0.76%) |
| VIX | 21.35 | +11.02% |
10-Year Yield: 4.3170% (+0.56%) — rising, headwind for equities and tech multiples.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Europe (red across the board):
- DAX: 23,526.38 (-1.17%)
- CAC 40: 8,178.66 (-0.98%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 5,857.93 (-1.15%)
- FTSE 100: 10,548.76 (-0.49%)
Asia (mixed to lower):
- Nikkei 225: 56,502.77 (-0.74%)
- Hang Seng: 25,660.85 (-0.90%)
- Shanghai SSE: 3,988.56 (+0.06%) — China outperforming on domestic stimulus bets
- ASX 200: 8,926.00 (-0.39%)
COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $104.10 | +7.80% 🔴 |
| Brent Crude | $102.36 | +7.52% 🔴 |
| Gold | $4,733.20 | -1.13% (profit-taking) |
| Silver | $74.29 | -2.87% |
| Natural Gas | $2.7060 | +2.19% |
| Copper | $5.87 | -0.22% |
Oil above $100 is a hard suppressor on the signal engine. Until WTI drops below $85, all non-energy, non-defense long entries are blocked.
CRYPTO
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $70,897 | -0.75% |
| ETH | ~$2,140 | -0.8% est |
| SOL | ~$89 | flat |
| XRP | ~$1.45 | flat |
Crypto holding up relatively well vs equities — risk-off but not a crypto selloff specifically.
CURRENCIES & BONDS
- EUR/USD: 1.1690 (-0.33%) — USD strengthening on safe-haven flows
- USD/JPY: 159.815 (+0.36%)
- USD/GBP: 0.7450 (+0.28%)
- 5Y Bond: 3.939% (+0.61%)
- 10Y Bond: 4.317% (+0.56%) — rising sharply
- 30Y Bond: 4.914% (+0.35%)
Bond yields rising with oil = stagflation-risk environment. Fed faces dilemma: inflation pressure from oil shock vs. slowing economy.
EARNINGS — TODAY (April 13)
Only one name of significance:
| Symbol | Company | Time | EPS Est | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS ✅ | Goldman Sachs | BMO | $16.39 | BEAT — record Q1 equities + M&A |
| FAST | Fastenal | BMO | $0.30 | Industrial bellwether |
Goldman Sachs Q1 2026: Record quarter driven by equities trading and investment banking M&A surge. GS +0.45% at $907.80 despite broader weakness — strong results offering some earnings season optimism heading into bank earnings week.
EARNINGS PREVIEW — TOMORROW (April 14, BMO)
Bank Earnings Week begins — 4 major banks reporting simultaneously:
| Symbol | Company | Time | EPS Est | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | BMO | $5.51 | $1.04T |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | BMO | $2.68 | $574.66B |
| C | Citigroup | BMO | $2.63 | $313.04B |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | BMO | $1.58 | $263.51B |
| BLK | BlackRock | BMO | $11.48 | $155.43B |
| KMX | CarMax | BMO | $0.24 | $6.86B |
| ACI | Albertsons | BMO | $0.41 | $9.49B |
Key watch: JPM is the most important read. Will they signal that banking revenues are holding despite geopolitical uncertainty? WFC and Citi are closely watched for credit quality signals. JNJ defensive healthcare — likely a beat.
KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY
- Existing Home Sales — 10:00 AM ET (prior: 4.09M units)
RAY’S SIGNAL ENGINE — APRIL 13
Decision: 🔴 HOLD CASH — DUAL SUPPRESSOR ACTIVE
All combined scores collapsed today:
| Symbol | VST | Combined Score | Signal | Suppressor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 1.47 | 0.481 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| PLTR | 1.30 | 0.406 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| LMT | 1.25 | 0.402 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| AMD | 1.20 | 0.385 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| AMZN | 1.22 | 0.386 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| CVX | 1.18 | 0.373 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| UNH | 1.15 | 0.375 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
| DAL | 0.90 | 0.311 | 🔴 SELL | Oil ($104) + Geo |
Why the scores collapsed: Oil filter (9% weight) = 0.10 when WTI > $100. Geo stress (8% weight) = 0.10 when GDELT > 1000. VIX trend (11%) = 0.10 (VIX rising). 10Y yield (10%) = 0.10 (rising). That’s 38% of the weighting hitting floor values. No combination of other signals can overcome this.
What would unlock trades:
- Oil returns below $85 (Hormuz agreement / ceasefire) → oil filter unlocks
- GDELT events fall below 800 → geo stress unlocks
- Until then: cash is the position
Hypothetical trade logged: If GOOGL were to clear suppressors today at ~$313.93, it would still be a HOLD (CS=0.481 < 0.65). No hypothetical entry — signal below threshold regardless of suppressors.
INTEL SNAPSHOT
ThinkCreate Intel (as of 12:30 UTC):
- Defense stocks in focus: RTX, LMT, NOC, PLTR elevated on conflict premium
- SIGINT: Police/fire/EMS feeds elevated across Gulf-proximate regions
- GPS jamming events elevated (military signatures)
- Satellite tracking: naval/carrier movements increased
- GDELT: >1000 global incident events (elevated)
BOTTOM LINE
Three simultaneous headwinds are hitting markets this morning: (1) Hormuz blockade drives oil above $100 for the first time since late 2025, (2) 10-year yields rising as bond markets price in stagflation risk, and (3) Goldman Sachs’ strong Q1 beat provides a partial offset as bank earnings season begins. The signal engine is firmly in cash-preservation mode. Watch Tuesday’s bank earnings for the real read on how the economy is positioned heading into this geopolitical shock.
Ray · The Menon Lab · signals.themenonlab.com