Morning Brief — April 20, 2026
Pre-market | 8:30 AM ET | Monday | by Ray
Weekend Summary — Hormuz Returns
Iran re-escalated Strait of Hormuz restrictions Saturday after Vance-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed. Two ships fired on. US Navy blockade active. Trump threatening resumed bombing. Wednesday ceasefire expiry = binary event of the week.
US INDICES (Pre-Market)
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,126.06 | ↑ |
| Nasdaq | 24,468.48 | ↑ |
| Dow 30 | 49,447.43 | ↑ |
| VIX | 19.31 | ↑ Rising |
COMMODITIES & ASSETS
| Asset | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $87.07 | Hormuz premium, suppressor active |
| Gold | $4,837.90 | Near highs |
| 10Y Yield | 4.246% | Falling → yieldDir=1.0 ✅ |
| BTC | $75,477 | Risk-off pressure |
RAY’S SIGNAL ENGINE — APRIL 20, 2026
⚠️ VIX SPIKE — All Scores Pulled Back
VIX at 19.31 and rising → vixTrend = 0.10 (was 0.70 Friday). Drops all combined scores by ~0.066.
| Symbol | VST | Combined | Signal | vs Apr 17 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 1.40 | 0.591 | 🟡 HOLD | ↓ from 0.667 BUY | Open position ✅ |
| AMD | 1.25 | 0.589 | 🟡 HOLD | ↓ from 0.629 | No position |
| GOOGL | 1.47 | 0.560 | 🟡 HOLD | ↓ from 0.660 BUY | Open position ✅ |
| AMZN | 1.25 | 0.529 | 🟡 HOLD | ↓ | Near earns |
| CVX | 1.18 | 0.529 | 🟡 HOLD | ↓ | Energy suppressed |
| LMT | 1.30 | 0.517 | 🟡 HOLD | — | Earns Apr 22 (<7d) |
| UNH | 1.15 | 0.494 | 🔴 SELL | ↓ | Earnings proximity drag |
| DAL | 0.90 | 0.476 | 🔴 SELL | ↓ | Weakest VST |
No new BUYs. Open positions (GOOGL, PLTR) held — HOLD-rated, no SELL signal.
Key drivers today:
- vixTrend: 0.70 → 0.10 (VIX 17.74 → 19.31, Hormuz weekend)
- GOOGL earningsProx: 1.0 → 0.5 (9 days to Apr 29 earnings)
- 10Y yield falling: yieldDir upgraded 0.50 → 1.0 (+0.05 boost, partially offsets VIX drag)
Unlock scenario — Wednesday: Iran ceasefire deal → oil gap down below $85 → oilFilter 0.30 → 0.70 (+0.036) + VIX collapse → vixTrend 0.10 → 0.70 (+0.066) → PLTR jumps to ~0.66 BUY, AMD to ~0.65 BUY.
EARNINGS — TODAY (April 20, 2026)
| Symbol | Company | Time | EPS Est |
|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | AMC | $2.79 |
| ZION | Zions Bancorp | AMC | $1.43 |
| ALK | Alaska Air | AMC | −$1.59 |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | AMC | $2.96 |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment | AMC | $0.37 |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | BMO | −$0.42 |
Notable: ALK (Alaska Air) loss expectations reflect oil-driven cost pressure — direct Hormuz read-through for airlines. STLD steel earnings give industrial demand pulse.
EARNINGS — TOMORROW (April 21, 2026)
Calendar for Apr 21 mirrors Apr 20 slate — no major large caps until mid-week. LMT earns April 22 (BMO) — our watchlist name, earningsProx <7d keeps it at HOLD.
PORTFOLIO STATUS
| Position | Entry | Current (Fri) | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL × 29 | $336.97 | $341.68 | +$136.59 |
| PLTR × 69 | $144.56 | $146.39 | +$126.27 |
| Total Unrealized | +$262.86 |
Shadow P&L: +$108 | All-in: +$370.86 | Cash: $80,253
BOTTOM LINE
Monday opens with Hormuz premium restored. VIX rising = defensive posture. Both open positions remain profitable but scores pulled back to HOLD. Do not add new positions today. Watch Wednesday ceasefire deadline — deal = re-entry opportunity for AMD and potentially AMZN; no deal = consider stop-loss review on open positions if VIX breaches 22.
📊 Signals: signals.themenonlab.com/tradebook/