Markets Pre-Open
U.S. futures are red heading into the open, weighed down by a fresh leg up in crude oil following overnight strikes tied to Iran.
- S&P Futures: 7,656.25 (-24.25, -0.32%)
- Dow Futures: 52,580.00 (-252.00, -0.48%)
- Nasdaq Futures: 29,404.25 (-134.50, -0.46%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,948.80 (-14.80, -0.50%)
- VIX: 16.19 (+0.47, +2.99%) — still calm historically, but climbing
- Gold: $4,456.50 (+17.50, +0.39%)
- Crude Oil (Oct ‘26): $95.83 (+2.80, +3.01%) — chasing $100 as tanker attacks escalate
- Bitcoin: $79,570.72 (+1,640.22, +2.10%)
Context: Tuesday’s session saw the Dow drop ~600 points as oil neared $100 and the U.S.-Canada trade spat escalated. Today’s tone is a continuation — rate-cut bets are being reassessed after last Friday’s hot August jobs print, and traders are watching CPI/PPI plus Treasury auctions later this week. Polymarket odds currently lean 66% for a green open despite the soft futures tape.
Today’s headline event: Apple’s first John Ternus-led product keynote — markets will parse tone/succession signals as much as hardware news.
Geopolitical Intel (ThinkCreate Threat Feed)
Top priority — LVL 7/10: U.S. military says it destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers after attacks on a Navy warship (NPR, 2 sources, coords 32.427, 53.688). This is the proximate driver of today’s crude spike and the most consequential overnight development for markets.
Other flagged items:
- LVL 5/10 — Same tanker strike story recapped alongside Smithsonian leadership resignation (NPR)
- LVL 5/10 — U.S. to ban imports of some Canadian alcohol, dairy goods, and motorbikes — trade war with Canada escalating (BBC, 5 sources)
- LVL 5/10 — Germany’s Merz clashes with AfD in Bundestag debate after far-right election win (BBC)
- LVL 4/10 — GDACS forest-fire notices in Angola, Zambia, Brazil, Türkiye (background noise, no market read-through)
- LVL 3/10 — Trump overhauls U.S. intelligence community, citing “Deep State” (NPR)
- LVL 3/10 — Russia-Ukraine cross-border strikes near Moldova, two killed (BBC)
Defense stocks: RTX $198.81 (-0.99%) | LMT $536.15 (+2.07%) | NOC $518.58 (+0.7%) | GD $356.58 (-0.78%) | BA $210.73 (-0.72%) | PLTR $170.30 (-2.31%). Lockheed’s outperformance stands out against a red tape — likely picking up a bid on the Iran-tanker escalation headline.
Live data snapshot: 26,701 vessels tracked | 546 active satellites | 31 earthquakes (24h) | 869 GDELT global incidents | 0 GPS jamming events flagged.
Commodities & Currencies
- Crude Oil: $95.83 (+3.01%), pushing toward the psychologically important $100 mark on the back of the Iran tanker strikes — this is the dominant macro story of the week
- Gold: $4,456.50 (+0.39%) — modest safe-haven bid, not yet a full risk-off move
- VIX: 16.19, up nearly 3% but still well within a “calm” regime historically
Earnings
Today (Wed Sep 9) — 39 companies reporting, notable names:
| Ticker | Company | Time | EPS Est. | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHWY | Chewy | BMO | 0.33 | met/inline | — |
| SIG | Signet Jewelers | BMO | 1.74 | 2.19 | +26.1% (raised FY guidance) |
| ASO | Academy Sports | BMO | 2.13 | beat | shares surged |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | BMO | 1.36 | 1.43 | +5.0% |
| COO | Cooper Companies | AMC | 1.12 | pending | — |
| SAIL | SailPoint | BMO | 0.08 | beat | ARR +25% but stock fell |
| AVAV | AeroVironment | AMC | 0.25 | pending | — |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | AMC | 0.21 | pending | — |
| CNM | Core & Main | BMO | 0.79 | beat | revenue +2.5% |
Early standouts: Signet Jewelers posted its best day in over a year after a big beat and raised guidance; J.Jill and Oddity Tech both jumped double digits on beats. Chewy met estimates and raised its full-year outlook — stock modestly higher on guidance, not the print itself.
Tomorrow (Thu Sep 10) — the week’s headline event: Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) both report after market close, both down 20% YTD, both seen as the biggest volatility catalysts of the week. Wall Street expects ORCL revenue +28.1% (cloud/AI infrastructure momentum) and ADBE revenue +11.7% ($6.69B) with EPS ~$6.08. Also watch: Kroger reports the same week. Mizuho has weighed in on ORCL vs. ADBE as the better software pick into the print — worth a dedicated earnings-preview or recap post once results land.
Bottom Line
Oil is the story: Iran tanker strikes are pushing crude toward $100 and dragging futures lower even as individual earnings (Signet, Academy Sports, Chewy) beat and guide higher — a classic “good micro, bad macro” tape. Watch Thursday’s Oracle/Adobe double-header for the next real catalyst; until then, expect chop driven by headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Canada trade dispute.