Markets Pre-Open
U.S. equities are on the back foot Thursday after Wednesday’s broad-based sell-off, with the S&P 500 down roughly 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 off about 0.9% in the prior session as rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar pressured risk assets — including concentrated tech-heavy passive holdings. Futures were little changed into Thursday’s open following a mixed Asia-Pacific handoff.
- S&P 500 (US500): ~7,699, -0.09% in Thursday trade, up 16.6% y/y
- Nasdaq 100: -0.9% Wednesday session, still up sharply on the year despite the pullback
- Dow: Mixed close Wednesday; five of 11 S&P sectors advanced
Rates: Treasury yields remain the dominant story — the 10-year continues to grind toward multi-decade highs, a persistent headwind for equity valuations and a tailwind for the dollar.
Context: Tuesday’s session had been mixed (Nasdaq notching fresh records intraday before fading), but Wednesday’s reversal broke the recent up-trend as investors rotated out of crowded tech positioning.
Geopolitical Intel (ThinkCreate Feed)
- [LVL 7/10] Tropical Cyclone ONE-26 — Orange alert, ~10.2M people in tropical-storm-force wind zone; humanitarian/insurance impact watch, no direct equity linkage yet.
- [LVL 5/10] Ethiopia and Tigray trade accusations of launching new offensives — fears of renewed war in the Horn of Africa; regional instability watch.
- [LVL 5/10] Son of Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. critically hurt in West Bank attack — Middle East risk premium in focus.
- [LVL 5/10] Europe warns of Russia’s hybrid attacks (sabotage, GPS jamming, infrastructure) but struggles to counter them — NATO-adjacent tension elevated.
- [LVL 5/10] Chile’s Defense Committee meets over Magellan sovereignty pretensions — low market relevance, regional watch only.
- [LVL 3/10] Trump-Xi summit dominates headlines — trade, AI, Iran, and Taiwan all on the table; any concrete trade-de-escalation signal is a potential positive catalyst for semis/tech.
- [LVL 3/10] Poland: fire at a Starlink station flagged as sabotage; Denmark warns of rising Russian threat — European infrastructure-security overhang continues.
- Defense stocks: RTX $192.19 (flat), LMT $524.68 (flat), NOC $514.42 (flat), GD $343.33 (flat), BA $199.93 (+1.1%), PLTR $191.79 (+3.7%) — Palantir showing standout relative strength.
Bottom line on geopolitics: No single LVL 7+ event is directly market-moving today, but the cumulative backdrop (cyclone humanitarian risk, Middle East friction, Russia-Europe hybrid conflict, and the high-stakes Trump-Xi summit) keeps a modest risk premium bid into month-end. Palantir’s outsized move stands out against an otherwise flat defense tape.
Commodities & Currencies
- Oil: Crude remains in the spotlight after several sessions of yield/oil crosscurrents; watch for any Trump-Xi headline on Iran sanctions or supply policy to move the tape intraday.
- Gold: Structural demand story continues (China import strength) even as yields rise — a tug-of-war between real-rate headwinds and safe-haven/central-bank demand.
- 10-Yr Treasury yield: Continuing its climb toward 19-year highs, the dominant cross-asset driver pressuring both equities and duration-sensitive sectors.
- Dollar: Strengthening alongside yields, an additional drag on multinational earnings translation and EM/commodity currencies.
Earnings
Today (Thu, Sep 24) — Reported / BMO & Overnight:
| Ticker | Company | EPS Est. | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 2.05 | 2.05 | -0.17% |
| BB | BlackBerry | 0.04 | 0.07 | +75% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX | 4.70 | 5.68 | +20.8% |
Today — Still to report (AMC):
- COST (Costco, $401.2B mkt cap) — AMC, EPS est. 6.53 — mega-cap watch, the day’s headline print
- SCHL (Scholastic) — AMC, EPS est. -3.42
- ADSE (ADS-TEC Energy) — AMC
- RZLT (Rezolute) — AMC, EPS est. -0.14
- LGCY (Legacy Education) — AMC, EPS est. 0.17
- ELBM (Electra Battery Materials) — TNS, EPS est. -0.03
Tomorrow (Fri, Sep 25) — Preview:
Earnings flow thins out heading into the weekend; no confirmed large-cap ($10B+) prints identified as of this morning’s pull. Will flag any additions in the evening update if the calendar populates further intraday.
Bottom Line
Rising Treasury yields remain the market’s central organizing force — pressuring equities broadly while lifting the dollar and keeping gold’s rally in check. Costco’s after-the-close print is the session’s key single-stock catalyst, while the Trump-Xi summit carries outsized headline risk in both directions for trade-sensitive tech and semis. Palantir’s standalone strength (+3.7%) against a flat defense tape is worth tracking as a possible AI/gov-tech rotation signal.