Markets Pre-Open
U.S. futures are green into the open with Non-Farm Payrolls on the tape this morning: S&P futures +0.09% (7,731), Dow futures +0.05% (51,267), Nasdaq futures +0.22% (30,827), Russell 2000 futures +0.15% (2,831). VIX sits at 16.39, modestly elevated but not stressed. 10-Yr yield eased to 5.24% (-1.06%).
By mid-session the tape had firmed further: S&P 500 7,666–7,735 (+0.19% to +0.89% intraday), Dow 30 ~50,927–51,272 (+0.04% to +0.68%), Nasdaq 26,872 (+0.04%), Russell 2000 2,807 (+0.35%). VIX actually fell through the session to 15.6 (-4.7%), a sign of risk appetite returning post-payrolls.
Asia overnight: Risk-on across the board — Nikkei 225 ripped +3.30% to 68,957, KOSPI +1.95% to 6,971, Hang Seng +0.37%, SSE Composite +0.31%. ASX 200 was the outlier, down -1.99%. Japan and Korea leading on tech/semis strength.
Europe mid-session: Red across the continent — DAX -1.03%, CAC 40 -1.62%, FTSE 100 -1.68%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.49%, Euronext 100 -1.45%, MSCI Europe -2.05%. Clear transatlantic divergence this morning, Europe digesting its own macro/rate worries while US futures firm.
Bonds: Yields broadly lower — 10-Yr 5.24% (-1.06%), 30-Yr 5.60% (-0.62%), 5-Yr 5.01% (-1.65%), 13-Wk 3.98% (-1.19%). Curve easing in sympathy with the NFP print.
Geopolitical Intel (ThinkCreate)
Top threat-scored items from the overnight sweep:
- [LVL 5/10] Oil Flows Are Up, but Iran Is Still Menacing the Strait of Hormuz (NYT) — the Hormuz risk premium persists even as flows normalize; watch for any escalation given still-live chokepoint exposure.
- [LVL 4/10] Green flood alerts — Thailand, Mexico (GDACS)
- [LVL 4/10] Green forest fire notification — Brazil (GDACS, 2 sources)
- [LVL 3/10] Southeast Asia pro-democracy crackdown risk (NPR)
- [LVL 3/10] UK reaffirms Falklands support (Mercopress)
- [LVL 3/10] Flydubai cockpit attack details emerge; Tel Aviv flight chaos + FBI probing employee-data hack (BBC/NPR)
- [LVL 3/10] Seoul warns Ukraine over POW dispute (BBC)
No LVL 7+ items overnight — geopolitical backdrop is quiet-to-moderate, nothing requiring an intraday macro note today.
Defense stocks: RTX $185.01 (-0.34%) | LMT $505.50 (-0.74%) | NOC $482.00 (-0.31%) | GD $332.72 (+0.27%) | BA $192.28 (+3.35%) | PLTR $190.04 (+1.60%). Boeing leading the group on another strong session.
Live data snapshot: Vessels tracked 23,932 | Active satellites 130 | GPS jamming events 0 | Earthquakes (24h) 30 | Global incidents (GDELT) 796.
Commodities & Currencies
- Gold: $4,211–4,220 (+0.21% to +0.43%) — holding near record territory
- Silver: $61.51 (+0.56%)
- Platinum: $1,735.20 (+0.72%)
- Copper: $6.58 (+0.63%)
- WTI Crude: ~$89.23–92.95, down sharply intraday (-3.9%) after an early flat open — a notable reversal given the Hormuz headline risk; Brent $102.38 (+0.07%)
- Natural Gas: $2.947 (-0.67%)
- Bitcoin: $84,837–86,586 (+1.5% to +3.2%), Ethereum $2,704.75 (+0.78%) — crypto catching a strong bid alongside the broader risk-on tone
- DXY: 101.98 (-0.12%); EUR/USD 1.1251 (+0.06%); USD/JPY 157.94 (-0.07%)
Earnings
Today reported/scheduled (Oct 2): A thin slate — Trilogy Metals (TMQ, -122% EPS surprise), Toro Corp (TORO, BMO, no estimates), Micware (MWC, BMO, no estimates). No large-cap prints today.
This week’s notable movers (context): Thursday Oct 1 saw a heavy tech/hardware session — NIKE (NKE) -7.47%, Seagate (STX) -13.84%, Western Digital (WDC) -8.77%, AppLovin (APP) -3.95%, while Strategy Inc (MSTR) +3.36%. Storage names got hit hard; watch for follow-through commentary into the weekend.
Tomorrow (Sat, Oct 3): Market closed, no earnings scheduled — Yahoo’s calendar returns zero results for Saturday as expected.
Next up: Applied Digital (APLD) reports Oct 7; PepsiCo (PEP) reports Oct 8 — both flagged on the dock for next week’s calendar.
Bottom Line
Payrolls morning delivering a classic “soft landing” tape: US futures green, VIX compressing into the print, yields easing — but the regional split is sharp, with Asia (especially Japan/Korea tech) ripping higher while Europe sells off broadly. Oil’s intraday reversal despite live Hormuz risk suggests markets are pricing flows over geopolitics for now. Earnings calendar is quiet into the weekend after Thursday’s brutal storage/hardware selloff (STX, WDC) — next real catalyst is APLD (Oct 7) and PEP (Oct 8).