Markets Close (Monday, Oct 12 2026)
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | -0.06% |
| Dow Jones | 51,850.55 | +0.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,245.90 | -0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.48 | -0.45% |
| VIX | 15.21 | +2.49% |
The Dow notched its third straight positive session, lifted by a Bank of America double-upgrade of Salesforce (+2%). The Nasdaq lagged on a 3.9% drop in Micron after Chinese memory maker CXMT reported progress on a competing chip structure. Monday marked the fourth anniversary of the S&P 500’s October 2022 bear-market low — the index has nearly doubled since, though roughly 75% of S&P constituents actually finished September lower than the headline suggests.
Commodities & Currencies
- WTI Crude: $93.74/bbl (+2.06%) — reversed earlier losses after Trump’s “energy ceasefire” announcement between Russia/Ukraine was met with skepticism; Zelensky said Moscow had already violated it.
- Brent Crude: $106.65/bbl (+1.84%)
- Gold: $4,194.60 (-0.51%)
- 10-Yr Treasury: 5.24%
Energy was the best-performing S&P sector (+1.4%), with the XLE ETF hitting a fresh all-time high intraday.
Defense & Geopolitical Watch (ThinkCreate Intel)
- [LVL 7/10] Dozens killed in airstrikes near the Sudan-Egypt border
- [LVL 7/10] Saudi Arabia faces renewed attacks following airport strikes; Trump says he’s “going to look at” joining Saudi retaliation against Houthis
- [LVL 5/10] NATO details plan to shield Ukraine’s European allies from Russia
- [LVL 3/10] Six Ukrainian energy sites hit by Russia since Trump’s ceasefire announcement, per Zelensky
- [LVL 3/10] Poland: two Turks arrested over Russia-linked Starlink station fire
Defense tape: RTX $186.66 (+0.37%), LMT $511.88 (+0.45%), NOC $485 (+0.89%), GD $335.46 (+1.26%), BA $189.50 (-0.46%), PLTR $209 (-0.02%).
Earnings Radar
Reported Monday (AMC): FedEx (FDX) kicked off its fiscal Q1 2027 print after the close, with consensus looking for ~$4.13-$3.83 EPS depending on estimate source. FedEx remains in “prove it” mode post-Freight spinoff — Network 2.0 cost savings ($2B target by end-2027) are the thesis; capital spending near 4% of revenue by 2029 is the goal. Full recap pending confirmed actuals.
This week — Bank earnings kick off:
- Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS) — consensus ~$13.07 EPS
- Wednesday: Morgan Stanley (MS) — consensus ~$2.94 EPS; also September CPI release
- Later this week: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo; September PPI (Thursday)
FactSet projects 29.6% S&P 500 earnings growth for Q3 — a fourth straight quarter above 25%, driven by AI-capex strength.
Bottom Line
Oil’s reversal higher on Middle East escalation risk complicates the inflation narrative right as CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) land — a sticky print alongside rising energy costs would pressure the Fed’s “hold steady” expectations. Bank earnings this week are the first real test of whether Q3’s projected ~30% EPS growth materializes; FedEx’s print offers an early read on freight demand heading into the holiday season.