Markets Pre-Open
Futures are mixed after Thursday’s tech-led selloff:
- S&P Futures: 7,702.25 (-0.03%)
- Dow Futures: 53,119.00 (+0.10%)
- Nasdaq Futures: 29,050.50 (-0.31%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,793.10 (-0.11%)
- VIX: 19.03 (+14.09%) — fear gauge jumped hard on Thursday’s tech rout
- 10-Yr Bond Yield: 4.953% (-3.75%) — flight to safety as AI-trade jitters spread
Thursday close (Oct 22):
- Dow Jones (^DJI): 52,867.98 (+0.02%) — essentially flat
- S&P 500 (^GSPC): -1.2%
- Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC): -2.6% — worst day in weeks, semiconductors led losses (SOXX, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, AMD, INTC all lower)
What Moved Markets
AI capex anxiety is back. Following Tesla and Meta earnings, investors are re-litigating the AI spending story. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s comments from Wednesday’s earnings call are reverberating: enterprises are “becoming a lot more cognizant” of AI ROI and getting “worried if some of the AI spending is completely out of control.” CoreWeave (CRWV) sank 10% on debt-load concerns tied to neocloud economics.
Geopolitical risk is repricing oil. Reports that the US and Israel are preparing for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterms sent Brent crude to $113/bbl and WTI to $100 — a five-month high. A separate deadly attack at a Saudi airport and Aramco oil field added upward pressure. Crude Oil (Dec 26 contract) closed at $99.41.
Crypto caught the risk-off wave. Bitcoin fell below $82,000, down more than 3% in 24 hours, as traders de-risked alongside equities.
Moderna (MRNA) crushed -17.6% to -20% after leaked cancer-vaccine trial results (melanoma) came in solid but short of the sky-high bar set by the initial announcement — a 38% reduction in spread risk for high-risk melanoma patients, per TD Cowen’s Tyler Van Buren, versus investor hopes baked in after shares had more than doubled on the initial readout. Worst single-day move since Moderna’s 2018 IPO.
Jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week — fewest in three months — signaling layoffs remain contained even as market jitters mount.
Commodities & Currencies
- Gold: $4,036.50 (-0.59%) — pulled back slightly despite risk-off tone, yields falling should be supportive longer-term
- Brent Crude: ~$113/bbl (5-month high) on Iran escalation risk
- WTI Crude: ~$100/bbl
- 10-Yr Yield: 4.95%, down sharply as bonds bid on flight-to-safety
Earnings Recap (Oct 22, After Close / Reported)
- Meta (META): EPS $7.40 vs $5.74 est. (beat by ~29%); Q4 revenue guide $73-76B (above $73.73B consensus midpoint); announced 2-for-1 stock split + new non-voting Class C shares. Stock still fell ~7% — guidance/capex concerns overshadowed the beat. Full recap below.
- Tesla (TSLA): Revenue $28.05B (in-line, roughly flat YoY); non-GAAP EPS $0.48 (beat ~$0.43-0.45 est.); deliveries 486,532 (down 2.1% YoY but well above 461,974 consensus). Stock fell 3% as investors weighed 2026 capex cuts against higher 2027-28 spend on Optimus/Cybercab/Terafab. Full recap below.
- Blackstone (BX): +8.38% despite weaker Q3 earnings — upbeat outlook on investment sales overshadowed elevated borrowing costs.
- IBM: Notable earnings-call commentary on AI ROI discipline reverberating across the tech sector today.
Earnings Ahead (Friday, Oct 23 — Before Open)
American Express (AXP), Schlumberger (SLB), Infosys (INFY), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA), Rogers Communications (RCI), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Autoliv (ALV), Balchem (BCPC), Rithm Capital (RITM), Gentex (GNTX), Flagstar (FLG), First Hawaiian (FHB) — 29 total reporting today per Yahoo Finance’s calendar, capping a 134-earnings Thursday.
Bottom Line
The AI-capex narrative flipped from tailwind to headwind in 48 hours — strong headline beats from Meta and Tesla weren’t enough to stop the selling once investors zeroed in on spending trajectories and cost-of-capital risk for debt-heavy AI infrastructure plays like CoreWeave. Layer in a genuine geopolitical oil shock (Iran escalation risk pushing Brent to 5-month highs) and a bond-market flight to safety, and Friday opens with elevated volatility (VIX +14%) and a market searching for its next catalyst — likely next week’s Fed meeting (Oct 28) and the PCE print.