When does ASML report Q1 2026 earnings?

ASML Holding N.V. reports Q1 2026 earnings before market open (BMO) on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. EPS consensus estimate is $6.64.

Why does ASML matter for the broader market?

ASML is the sole supplier of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the equipment needed to manufacture chips at 7nm and below. Every major AI chip (NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC-made Apple Silicon, Intel) depends on ASML hardware. When ASML's order book grows, AI investment is accelerating. When it stalls, so does the chip cycle.

What is the key metric to watch beyond EPS?

Order intake (bookings) is the single most important number. Q4 2025 orders were strong despite macro noise. If Q1 2026 bookings come in above €6B, it signals customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) are still investing aggressively in AI fab capacity. Below €4B would be a red flag for the entire semiconductor supply chain.

How do tariffs affect ASML?

ASML manufactures in the Netherlands and sells globally. US tariff escalation creates two risks: (1) customers (especially TSMC/US fabs) may slow capex decisions pending clarity on trade policy; (2) ASML itself faces potential restrictions on China shipments, which remain a meaningful portion of legacy node revenue. Management guidance on China exposure will be closely watched.

What happens to AMD and PLTR if ASML misses?

An ASML miss typically triggers a semiconductor sector selloff. AMD (in Ray's watchlist) would likely pull back 3-5% on weaker chip equipment outlook. PLTR has less direct exposure but trades as a tech/AI proxy — sentiment contagion is likely. A beat, however, could catalyze both names and push GOOGL/AMD combined scores closer to the BUY threshold.

What is Ray's signal engine position on ASML?

ASML is not in Ray's current 8-name watchlist, but it's a tier-1 read-through for AMD, GOOGL, and AMZN (cloud AI spend). A strong ASML print tomorrow is one of the catalysts that could push AMD's sector momentum score higher and lift combined scores toward the 0.65 BUY threshold.

Earnings Preview: ASML Q1 2026

Reports: Wednesday, April 15, 2026 — Before Market Open (BMO) Consensus EPS: $6.64 Market Cap: ~$589 billion Ticker: ASML (Nasdaq)

Why This Is the Most Important Report of the Week

JPMorgan, Goldman, and the banks get the headlines — but for the tech and AI trade, ASML Holding is the report that matters most this week.

ASML is the world’s only manufacturer of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. Without them, you cannot make chips below 7nm. That means: no NVIDIA H100, no Apple M-series, no AMD MI300, no leading-edge TSMC node. The entire AI infrastructure build depends on ASML’s production line.

When ASML’s order book swells, big chip fabs are betting billions on AI’s future. When it stalls, they’re hedging.

What to Watch

1. Order Intake (The Key Number)

Bull case: €6B+ in new orders → AI capex robust, tariff noise not slowing customer decisions
Base case: €4-6B → Steady, healthy but cautious
Bear case: <€4B → Signal that tariff uncertainty is causing capex delays

Q4 2025 bookings were reported at approximately €7.1B — a very strong quarter. Comps are high.

2. China Revenue Guidance

ASML has faced escalating restrictions on EUV shipments to China. The company can still ship older DUV (Deep UV) systems. Watch how management characterizes China demand and any new US/EU restriction language.

3. 2026 Full-Year Revenue Guidance

ASML guided €30-35B for fiscal 2026. Any narrowing or upward revision would be strongly bullish. Any downgrade — especially if citing tariffs or macro uncertainty — would send the stock and sector lower.

4. Gross Margin

High-NA EUV (the next generation machine priced at ~€350M each) carries better margins. Margin expansion in Q1 would confirm the product mix shift is happening as expected.

Valuation Snapshot (Pre-Earnings)

ASML trades at approximately 32x forward earnings at current levels — a premium to the broader market but justified by monopoly status and secular AI demand. If the company beats on EPS and raises guidance, expect re-rating toward 35x+.

Sector Read-Through for Ray’s Watchlist

Stock	ASML Beat Impact	ASML Miss Impact
AMD	+Sector momentum boost → sector score ↑	−Pullback likely 3-5%
GOOGL	+AI capex confidence → cloud read-through	−Marginal negative, mostly indirect
AMZN	+Cloud/AI infrastructure demand validated	−Same as GOOGL
PLTR	+AI adoption sentiment	−Tech sentiment drag
LMT	Neutral (defense, not semis)	Neutral

An ASML beat could push AMD’s combined score above 0.50+ on sector momentum improvement, potentially setting up AMD as a BUY candidate if oil also moves to <$85.

Historical Context

ASML has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters. The company has exceptional visibility due to its monopoly position and multi-year order backlog. A miss would be genuinely surprising.

Risks to the upside story:

US-China tech war escalation (China revenue cliff)
Tariff uncertainty slowing fab investment decisions
High-NA EUV ramp slower than expected
Currency headwinds (USD strong vs EUR during tariff uncertainty period)

Bottom Line

ASML is the AI capex canary. If they sing tomorrow — strong orders, raised guidance, China risk contained — the AI infrastructure narrative holds. If they don’t, expect semiconductor names to get hit and the broader tech rotation to stall.

This is the report to watch April 15.

Ray — The Menon Lab | signals.themenonlab.com

Earnings Preview: ASML Q1 2026 — The AI Capex Canary Reports Tomorrow