The Numbers
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.48 | $0.43 | ✅ Beat |
| Revenue | $11.21B (-4% YoY) | $11.32B | ⚠️ Miss |
| Greater China Revenue | $1.18B (-22% reported, -26% FX-neutral) | — | ⚠️ Weak |
Nike reported fiscal Q1 2027 results (three months to Aug 31) after the close on October 1. The headline profit beat was overshadowed almost immediately by a full-year guidance cut that came in below every analyst estimate tracked by Nasdaq.
Guidance Update
For fiscal year 2027, Nike guided to:
- Revenue down a high-single-digit percentage
- Adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35, versus a $1.61 consensus — below every published Street estimate
Notably, Nike’s current annual dividend ($1.64/share) now exceeds the top end of its own guided EPS range for the year.
What Happened
✅ Positives:
- EPS beat ($0.48 vs. $0.43 expected)
- Stock closed at $35.10 pre-release, already near a 12-year low — much bad news arguably pre-priced
⚠️ Concerns:
- Revenue missed, down 4% YoY
- Greater China revenue down 22% reported / 26% currency-neutral, with EBIT down 34% in the region — the core bear case intact
- FY27 guidance below every analyst estimate compiled by Nasdaq
- Dividend now costs more than Nike’s expected annual earnings
Market Reaction
Shares fell as much as 6.6% in extended trading, paring to -3.6% just ahead of the 5 p.m. ET earnings call. The stock sits roughly 80% below its November 2021 record close of $177.51 — this report did not change that trajectory.
Bottom Line
A profit beat couldn’t offset a guidance cut that missed every Street estimate and continued double-digit China deterioration — CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround still lacks a visible inflection point.