Market Close — August 12, 2026 (4:00 PM ET)
US INDICES
- S&P 500: 7,748.50 (+0.26%) — Tech strength offset cyclical weakness
- Dow: 53,770.27 (-0.04%) — Flat as industrials diverged
- Nasdaq: 26,588.49 (+0.54%) — Cisco, Cerebras AI earnings beats
- Russell 2000: 3,045.48 (+0.61%) — Small caps outperformed
- VIX: 14.55 (-4.78%) — Fear gauge lowest since July, complacency rising
FUTURES (Post-Close)
- S&P Futures: 7,768.25 (-0.03%)
- Dow Futures: 53,882.00 (+0.02%)
- Nasdaq Futures: 29,798.00 (-0.19%)
- Russell Futures: 3,055.00 (+0.07%)
ASIA (Overnight Session)
- KOSPI: 6,579.04 (+3.68%) — South Korea tech rally
- Nikkei 225: 67,524.06 (+0.83%)
- Hang Seng: 25,440.17 (-0.83%)
- Shanghai Composite: 3,946.68 (+0.32%)
EUROPE (Close)
- FTSE 100: 10,833.15 (-0.10%)
- DAX: 26,331.07 (-0.23%)
- CAC 40: 8,674.94 (-0.46%)
- Euro Stoxx 50: 6,533.99 (-0.26%)
COMMODITIES
- Gold: 4,466.60 (-0.02%) — Range-bound, macro uncertainty
- WTI Crude: 82.65 (-0.74%) — Demand concerns outweigh geopolitical risk
- Brent: 88.40 (-0.65%)
- Copper: 6.60 (-0.20%)
- Silver: 65.39 (-0.47%)
- Natural Gas: 2.7950 (-0.32%)
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin: 63,403.21 (-0.20%) — Sub-64K consolidation continues
- Ethereum: 1,876.96 (-0.20%)
- Solana: 75.57 (-0.85%)
- XRP: 1.00 (-1.72%)
GEOPOLITICAL INTEL — ThinkCreate OSINT
PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE
[LVL 5/10] — US disables a Panama-flagged container ship off the coast of Pakistan
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:16:00 GMT — Mercopress, 4 sources
Coords: 38.907, -77.036
[LVL 5/10] — Hegseth cautions that ICC may investigate US boat strikes in Latin America
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 21:52:18 +0000 — AlJazeera, 1 sources
Coords: 4.57, -74.297
[LVL 3/10] — Major Russian grain export terminals hit in Ukraine Black Sea port attack
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 17:47:01 GMT — BBC, 1 sources
Coords: 49.487, 31.272
[LVL 3/10] — Ecuadorean Fishing Boats Hit by Mystery Attackers
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:02:30 +0000 — NYT, 1 sources
[LVL 4/10] — Green notification for tropical cyclone CRISTOBAL-26. Population affected by Cat 1 wind speeds: 0
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 15:06:05 GMT — GDACS, 1 sources
Coords: 37.2, -41
[LVL 4/10] — Green notification for tropical cyclone NANGKA-26. Population affected by Cat 1 wind speeds: 0
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 13:36:25 GMT — GDACS, 1 sources
Coords: 24.7, 146.4
GLOBAL MARKETS
DEFENSE STOCKS:
RTX 222.76 (-0.49%) | LMT 606.72 (+1.5%) | NOC 577.32 (+0.28%)
GD 394.21 (+0.59%) | BA 231.2 (-0.87%) | PLTR 171.04 (-2.23%)
LIVE DATA SNAPSHOT
• Commercial flights: 4,778 | Military: 272 | Private: 2,315
• Tracked/flagged aircraft: 1,376
• Vessels (ships): 11
• Active satellites: 540
• GPS jamming events: 0
• Earthquakes (24h): 43
• Global incidents (GDELT): 1,178
SECTORS — Tuesday Close
| Sector | Day Return | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | +1.12% | ✅ Cisco, Cerebras AI demand beats |
| Industrials | +2.15% | ✅ Broadest rally |
| Healthcare | +0.45% | → Defensive bid |
| Financials | +0.42% | → Rates stabilizing |
| Energy | Flat | 🛢 Oil -0.74%, demand concerns |
| Consumer Cyclical | -1.06% | ❌ Weakness in discretionary |
| Communication Services | -0.72% | ❌ Profit-taking after rally |
| Basic Materials | -0.37% | ❌ Copper down, China concerns |
EARNINGS — Today’s Closes (Aug 12)
Top Movers After Hours:
- CSCO (Cisco): 123.88 (+2.86%) — Q3 beat on AI networking demand, +7.46% post-earnings
- CBRS (Cerebras): 262.06 (+11.63%) — AI chip demand surge, capacity expansion announced
- COHR (Coherent Corp): 355.64 (+8.24%) — Optics beat, AI data center tailwind
- SMCI (Super Micro): 37.61 (+19.02%) — Q4 beat, 164.6M volume (3x avg)
EARNINGS — Tomorrow (Aug 13)
BEFORE MARKET OPEN (BMO):
- JD (JD.com) — EPS est 5.63 | Market Cap 42.7B | Q2
- BN (Brookfield Corp) — EPS est 0.31 | 99.8B | Q2
- TPR (Tapestry) — EPS est 1.28 | 31.1B | Q4
- BIRK (Birkenstock) — EPS est 0.76 | 6.8B | Q3
- FIGR (Figure Tech) — EPS est 0.32 | 6.8B | Q2
- VIPS (Vipshop) — EPS est 3.94 | 6.9B | Q2
AFTER MARKET CLOSE (AMC):
- AMAT (Applied Materials) — EPS est 3.39 | 435.2B | Q3 — KEY WATCH
- NU (Nu Holdings) — EPS est 0.19 | 65.5B | Q2
- BAP (Credicorp) — EPS est 7.36 | 29.6B | Q2
- QXO (QXO Inc) — EPS est 0.08 | 15.6B | Q2
KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS — This Week
Thursday, Aug 13:
- Initial Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET (est 199K)
Friday, Aug 14:
- University of Michigan Sentiment (prelim) @ 10:00 AM ET (est 55.2)
BOTTOM LINE
Markets closed mixed Tuesday as tech sector strength (+1.12%) from Cisco and Cerebras AI earnings beats offset weakness in consumer cyclicals and communication services. VIX fell -4.78% to 14.55, lowest since July — complacency rising despite elevated geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical watch: US ship disablement off Pakistan (LVL 5) and ICC investigation warnings (LVL 5) underscore escalating maritime tensions. Defense sector diverged — LMT +1.5%, RTX/PLTR down — suggesting selective positioning rather than broad defense rally.
Tomorrow’s watch: Applied Materials (AMAT) after close — EPS est 3.39. Semiconductor capital equipment beat would confirm AI infrastructure buildout remains robust. Nu Holdings (NU) also reports AMC — Latin America fintech growth story.
Tone: Risk-on in tech, risk-off everywhere else. VIX sub-15 with 1,178 GDELT incidents and LVL 5 threats active = disconnect. Watch for volatility snap-back if jobless claims miss or AMAT guides cautiously.