Markets Closed
US INDICES
- S&P 500: 7,677.28 (+0.32%)
- Dow: 53,577.40 (+0.30%)
- Nasdaq: 26,151.30 (+0.66%)
- Russell 2000: 3,010.02 (+0.50%)
- VIX: 15.45 (-2.5%)
FUTURES (After Hours)
- S&P: 7,682.50 (-0.12%)
- Dow: 53,609.00 (-0.07%)
- Nasdaq: 29,220.50 (-0.19%)
- Russell 2000: 3,011.10 (-0.11%)
Modest gains across the board. Tech led (Nasdaq +0.66%), small caps participated. Futures flat — waiting for NVDA.
GEOPOLITICAL INTEL
THINKCREATEINTEL // GLOBAL THREAT INTERCEPT [2026-08-26 00:00 UTC]
PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE
- [LVL 7/10] — Seven killed in Gaza, Israeli strike destroys aid warehouse (AlJazeera, 21:26 UTC)
- [LVL 5/10] — Trump economic war on Iran: Can sanctions do what airstrrike couldn’t? (NPR, 3 sources)
- [LVL 5/10] — Israeli lawmaker smashes Palestinian monument in West Bank (NYT, 18:52 UTC)
- [LVL 3/10] — Canada fires back: up to 50% tariffs on US goods (NYT, BBC, 5 sources)
- [LVL 4/10] — Tropical cyclone JULIO-26 notification, Cat 1 winds, zero population affected (GDACS)
- [LVL 3/10] — Chile protests Argentina military remarks re: Strait of Magellan (Mercopress, 2 sources)
DEFENSE STOCKS
- RTX: $210.28 (+0.51%)
- LMT: $556.52 (-1.35%)
- NOC: $542.52 (-1.23%)
- GD: $376.58 (-1.87%)
- BA: $211.08 (+0.29%)
- PLTR: $172.73 (-1.80%)
Defense mixed. LMT/NOC/GD down despite Gaza escalation — market discounting sustained conflict risk.
LIVE DATA SNAPSHOT
- Commercial flights: 5,942 | Military: 237 | Private: 3,306
- Tracked aircraft: 1,412
- Vessels: 26,878
- Active satellites: 540
- GPS jamming: 9 events
- Earthquakes (24h): 39
- GDELT incidents: 1,098
ANALYST NOTE Gaza aid warehouse strike + Canada tariff retaliation = escalation on two fronts. Oil ignoring both — down 1.6% — signals macro risk-off, not scarcity premium. Watch NVDA tomorrow; if it misses, VIX spikes, defense gets bid.
COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES
COMMODITIES
- Gold: $4,712.80 (+0.39%)
- WTI Crude: $81.06 (-1.58%)
- Brent: $85.94 (-1.52%)
- Natural Gas: $2.85 (+0.99%)
- Silver: $68.75 (+0.10%)
- Copper: $6.70 (-0.26%)
Oil dropping despite geopolitical noise = demand destruction fears outweigh supply risk. Gold up modestly.
CRYPTO
- BTC: $78,552 (-0.54%)
- ETH: $2,444 (-1.54%)
- SOL: $96.59 (-2.41%)
- XRP: $1.43 (-3.19%)
Crypto weak. Risk-off tone into inflation data + NVDA earnings.
CURRENCIES
- EUR/USD: 1.1678 (+0.02%)
- USD/CAD: 1.3837 (+0.02%)
- USD/JPY: 159.22 (+0.01%)
- USD/GBP: 0.7328 (+0.02%)
Dollar flat. No reaction to tariff escalation yet.
BONDS
- 10-Yr Yield: 4.639% (-1.38%)
- 30-Yr Yield: 5.17% (-1.09%)
- 2-Yr Yield: N/A
- TLT (20Y+ Treasury ETF): $83.47 (+1.10%)
Yields down, bonds up. Flight to safety before PCE + earnings.
EARNINGS PREVIEW — TUESDAY, AUGUST 26
After Market Close (AMC):
| Symbol | Company | Est EPS | Market Cap | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | $2.09 | $5.16T | The main event. Beat expected, guidance matters more. |
| CRM | Salesforce | $3.27 | $168.5B | AI strategy, subscription growth under scrutiny. |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | $0.29 | $188.8B | Post-outage recovery, net new ARR key metric. |
| SNPS | Synopsys | $3.67 | $78.3B | EDA demand tied to chip cycle. |
| A | Agilent | $1.49 | $43.7B | Pharma/biotech tool demand. |
| VEEV | Veeva | $2.22 | $40.1B | Healthcare cloud SaaS. |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | $0.69 | $27B | PC demand still weak. |
| OKTA | Okta | $0.96 | $22.9B | Identity security, competitive pressure. |
Before Market Open (BMO):
| Symbol | Company | Est EPS | Market Cap | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma | $1.79 | $27.6B | Home goods retail. |
| SJM | J.M. Smucker | $2.22 | $13.4B | Packaged foods. |
| BBWI | Bath & Body Works | $0.38 | $3.5B | Consumer discretionary weak. |
| KSS | Kohl’s | $0.30 | $2B | Retail struggling. |
| DY | Dycom | $4.68 | $10.6B | Infrastructure. |
| ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | $2.30 | $4.8B | Teen retail. |
TOMORROW’S ECONOMIC DATA (8:30 AM ET):
- Core PCE (YoY): Prior 3.3%, expected flat
- PCE (YoY): Prior 3.7%
NVDA is the only thing that matters. If it beats and guides up, market rallies 1%+. If it misses or guides cautiously, VIX spikes, defense/staples bid.
KEY EVENTS — WEDNESDAY
- 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE inflation data (Fed’s preferred metric)
- AMC: NVDA, CRM, CRWD earnings
- Continued fallout from Canada tariff announcement (50% on select US goods)
BOTTOM LINE
Markets drifted higher into NVDA. Oil down despite Gaza strike — signals risk-off, not war premium. Canada’s tariff retaliation (up to 50%) escalates trade war but markets ignoring for now. All eyes on NVDA earnings AMC Tuesday + Core PCE Wednesday morning. If NVDA beats and PCE cools, rally extends. If either disappoints, VIX jumps, defensive rotation accelerates.
Watch: NVDA guidance, PCE print, Canada-US trade retaliation escalation.