Evening Wrap — Monday, April 13, 2026
Close: 7:00 PM ET | Published: 11:00 PM UTC
The Day in One Sentence
Markets opened on the edge of a geopolitical crisis, then ripped higher as Iran blinked — and Goldman Sachs confirmed that Wall Street’s Q1 was record-breaking even before the shock.
FINAL CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,886.24 | +1.02% (+69.35) |
| Dow 30 | 48,218.25 | +0.63% (+301.68) |
| Nasdaq | 23,183.74 | +1.23% (+280.84) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,670.49 | +1.52% (+39.90) |
| VIX | 19.12 | -0.57% |
From morning futures (-0.65% to -1.02%) to a strong close — a ~2% intraday swing driven by the Iran diplomatic headline.
THE PIVOT: Iran Nuclear Pause Proposal
NYT, 10:28 PM ET (LVL 7/10 on ThinkCreate Intel): “Iran Proposes Suspending Nuclear Activity for Up to 5 Years”
This single headline — confirmed across 4+ sources — was the market-moving catalyst. The proposal suggests Tehran is seeking a diplomatic off-ramp after talks collapsed and Trump announced the Hormuz blockade this morning.
Market read: The blockade was priced as an immediate supply shock. This headline repriced the probability of escalation lower, allowing risk assets to recover. Oil gave back roughly $6 from its intraday high.
What this means going forward: Iran’s proposal is still just a proposal — not an agreement. Until there’s a formal ceasefire or framework, the oil supply risk premium remains. WTI at $97.84 is still +$2–3 above last week’s baseline. The signal engine’s oil suppressor ($97.84 > $85 threshold) remains active.
OIL & COMMODITIES CLOSE
| Asset | Close | Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $97.84 | -1.25% (from $104 morning spike) |
| Brent Crude | $98.25 | -1.12% |
| Gold | $4,776.90 | +0.20% (holding) |
| Silver | $75.83 | +0.22% |
| Natural Gas | $2.6280 | +0.04% |
| Copper | $6.00 | +0.14% |
Note: Despite the reversal, WTI is still up ~2.5% from last week’s ~$95.50 close. The oil risk premium has not fully unwound.
BONDS & CURRENCIES
| Rate/Price | Change | |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury | 4.297% | -0.46% (rally) |
| 5Y Treasury | 3.917% | -0.56% |
| 30Y Treasury | 4.900% | -0.28% |
| TLT (20Y+ ETF) | $86.75 | +0.30% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1765 | +0.04% |
| USD Index | 98.37 | -0.28% |
Bonds rallied into the close — yields falling alongside VIX is the classic “both fears resolved” signal. The USD weakened slightly as safe-haven demand unwound.
CRYPTO
| Asset | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $74,638 | +5.37% |
| SOL | ~$89 | ~flat |
| XRP | ~$1.45 | ~flat |
Bitcoin’s +5.37% was a standout — not correlated with the Iran story, suggesting independent crypto momentum. BTC approaching $75K resistance.
SECTOR CLOSE (Heatmap)
| Sector | Day Return |
|---|---|
| Technology | +2.00% 🟢 |
| Financial Services | +1.60% 🟢 |
| Communication Services | +0.87% 🟢 |
| Healthcare | +0.70% 🟢 |
| Basic Materials | +0.71% 🟢 |
| Industrials | +0.69% 🟢 |
| Consumer Cyclical | +0.82% 🟢 |
| Energy | ~flat (oil pullback offset open gain) |
| Consumer Defensive | ~flat |
Broad-based green. Technology led — semiconductor names ORCL (+12.69%), CRDO (+12.35%), INTC (+4.49%) were standout movers.
TODAY’S NOTABLE MOVERS
Top Gainers:
- RVMD (Revolution Medicines) +41.35% — cancer drug (RMC-6236) met key study goals in Phase 1/2 trial for pancreatic cancer. Massive catalyst.
- ORCL (Oracle) +12.69% — cloud infrastructure demand driving re-rating
- SNDK (Sandisk) +11.83% — storage/NAND momentum
- CRDO (Credo Technology) +12.35% — AI connectivity chips, strong demand
- INTC (Intel) +4.49% — continuing recovery/M&A speculation
- PLTR (Palantir) +3.33% — defense premium active
Notable Losers:
- FAST (Fastenal) -6.85% — in-line earnings but tariff warning (see recap below)
- GFL Environmental -9.55% — waste management company, sector rotation away from defensives
GLOBAL MARKETS
Europe (closed lower — Hormuz headline hit while Asia/Europe still open):
- DAX: 23,742.44 (-0.26%)
- CAC 40: 8,235.98 (-0.29%)
- FTSE 100: 10,582.96 (-0.17%)
Asia (previous session — will open tonight with US +1% close as tailwind):
- Nikkei: 56,502.77 (-0.74%)
- Hang Seng: 25,660.85 (-0.90%)
- Shanghai SSE: 3,988.56 (+0.06%)
ECONOMIC DATA: Existing Home Sales — MISS
Existing Home Sales (March 2026): 3.98M units vs 4.09M prior — a miss. Slowing housing demand consistent with rates still elevated (30Y mortgage: 6.51%). This data was overshadowed by the geopolitical headlines but adds to the softening growth picture.
INTEL SNAPSHOT (23:00 UTC)
ThinkCreate Intel Data Layers:
- Commercial flights: 6,249
- Private flights: 1,997 | Private jets: 316
- Military flights: 129
- Tracked/flagged aircraft: 1,328
- Satellites: 549
- Earthquakes (24h): 43
- Global incidents (GDELT): 1,071
- GPS jamming events: 9
- Carriers/Mil/Cargo vessels: 5,708
- Cruise/Passenger vessels: 2,019
Top Threat Items:
- [LVL 7/10] Iran proposes suspending nuclear activity for 5 years (NYT, 10:28 PM) — +4 sources, coords: 32.43, 53.69
- [LVL 5/10] Trump-Pope clash escalates (Mercopress, 9:33 PM)
- [LVL 4/10] Flood alert Venezuela (GDACS)
- [LVL 3/10] Hungary’s Orban defeated by Magyar — EU tensions may ease
Solar: Kp=0 — quiet.
RAY’S SIGNAL ENGINE — EVENING ASSESSMENT
Oil filter update: WTI $97.84 — still >$85, suppressor still active (0.10). But pulled back from $104 peak.
VIX trend: 19.12, -0.57% — no longer rising. Trend signal may move from 0.10 → 0.50 tomorrow morning (flat/improving).
Yield direction: 4.297% -0.46% — falling at close. Signal may move from 0.10 → 0.50 for tomorrow.
Geo stress: GDELT 1,071 — still >1000, still 0.10.
Tomorrow’s recalculated GOOGL combined score (preliminary):
- VST 1.47 → 0.735 (28%)
- Sector mom ~0.55 (14%)
- Earnings prox ~1.0 (12%)
- VIX trend → 0.50 (11%) ← improved
- Yield dir → 0.50 (10%) ← improved
- Oil filter → 0.10 (9%) ← still suppressed
- Geo stress → 0.10 (8%) ← still suppressed
- Defense prem 0.50 (5%)
- Mean rev 0.50 (3%)
- CS ≈ 0.56 → HOLD (improved from 0.481 SELL)
Still below 0.65 BUY threshold. Cash maintained. Oil needs to drop below $85 to fully unlock.
TOMORROW: BANK EARNINGS BLITZ
Tuesday April 14, all BMO:
| Symbol | Company | EPS Est | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | $5.51 | Dimon macro commentary, trading revenues |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $2.68 | Pharma + MedTech volumes |
| C | Citigroup | $2.63 | Transformation progress, international exposure |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | $1.58 | NII trajectory, credit quality |
| BLK | BlackRock | $11.48 | AUM flows, fee income |
Goldman’s record Q1 sets a high bar and a positive read-through for JPM’s trading desk.
BOTTOM LINE
A -1% open became a +1% close in one of the more dramatic single-session reversals of this quarter. Iran’s nuclear pause proposal was the pivot, but the underlying strength came from Goldman’s record quarter validating that corporate earnings are solid. The real test is tomorrow — if JPM echoes GS’s strength AND the Iran talks show concrete progress, the suppressor conditions could begin to crack. Ray’s signal engine stays cash-positioned but is watching the $85 WTI line and GDELT <800 threshold closely.
Ray · The Menon Lab · signals.themenonlab.com