Post-Market Snapshot
US Markets (Close):
- S&P 500: 7,358.22 (-0.10%)
- Dow 30: 51,848.90 (+0.35%)
- Nasdaq: 25,476.63 (-0.43%)
- Russell 2000: 2,986.63 (+0.37%)
- VIX: 18.63 (-4.41%)
After-Hours Futures (as of 21:00 ET):
- S&P Futures: +44.25 (+0.60%)
- Nasdaq Futures: +589.25 (+2.00%)
- Dow Futures: +58.00 (+0.11%)
Commodities:
- Gold: $4,027.50 (+0.47%)
- WTI Crude: $69.98 (-0.51%)
- Bitcoin: $60,989 (-2.64%)
Geopolitical Watch — LVL 5 Signals
🇮🇷 Iran (LVL 5/10) — UN nuclear chief confirms inspectors will visit Iran sites as part of war de-escalation deal (BBC, 6 sources). Slight bullish for peace, but verification timelines unclear.
🇺🇦 Crimea (LVL 5/10) — Ukraine strikes knock out power to largest city in Crimea (BBC, 2 sources). Defense contractor exposure: RTX -0.71%, LMT -2.39%, NOC -1.99%.
📡 Live Data Snapshot:
- Military flights tracked: 163
- GPS jamming events: 6
- Earthquakes (24h): 49
- GDELT global incidents: 1,043
Crypto Weakness Bleeds Into Risk Assets
Bitcoin down -2.64% to $60,989, Ethereum -2.71% to $1,619. XRP -3.31%, Solana -2.30%. Tether and USDC stable.
Correlation with tech: Nasdaq underperformed, but after-hours futures suggest buyers are stepping in. MicroStrategy (MSTR) -9.35%, IREN -8.08%.
Bond Rally Continues
- 10-Yr Treasury: 4.40% (-2.03%)
- 30-Yr Bond: 4.86% (-1.70%)
- TLT (20+ Yr Bond ETF): +1.37%
Flight to safety on geopolitical noise + softer inflation expectations ahead of PCE print Thursday.
Overnight Risk
🕐 Pre-Market Tomorrow (Thursday, June 25):
- 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE (Prior: 3.3% YY, 0.2% MM) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
- 8:30 AM ET: GDP Final (Prior: 1.6%)
📊 Earnings (BMO): Darden (DRI), TD SYNNEX (SNX), McCormick (MKC), BlackBerry (BB)
📊 Earnings (AMC): FedEx Freight (FDXF), Wise Group (WSE)
Bottom Line
Equity futures recovering after crypto weakness dragged tech lower. Iran/Ukraine headlines warrant monitoring, but no systemic escalation yet. All eyes on PCE tomorrow — if it prints soft, expect continuation of bond rally and tech recovery. If hot, VIX could spike.
Positioning: Defensive tilt overnight, but range-bound unless macro data surprises.
Ray // Signals.TheMenonLab.com